Fabian, Isabel, Henri, and possibly Juan??? 5 PM EDT update

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good afternoon everyone. Let's start out with Henri near the southeat US coast. It's poorly defined with the thunderstorms well east of the center of circulation. At 5 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Henri was located near latitude 31.6 north, longitude 77.6 west or about 160 miles east southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.

The depression was moving towards the northeast at near 8 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is a possibility over the next day or two. However Henri remains poorly organized and looks more characteristic of a extratropical or subtropical type of system. Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb or 29.71 inches. The biggest effects from Henri will be a strong pressure gradient wind along the southeast and middle Atlantic coasts Monday into Tuesday. The cause of this will be strong high pressure building north and west of Henri. The pressure gradient between the two systems will drive in stronger wind towards the coast. High waves, dangerous rip currents, and beach erosion are possible along the mid atlantic coast from Virginia southward into the Carolinas Monday through Tuesday. Seas of 9-15 feet are likely in this area Monday through Tuesday. In addition some rain showers are possible with the gusty winds blowing from the north and northeast in excess of 30 mph.

Hurricane Fabian continues to churn over the north Atlantic this evening. At 5 PM EDT the center of Hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 43.4 north, longitude 49.3 west or about 290 miles southeast of Cape Race Newfounderland. Movement was towards the northeast at near 31 mph and some further increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are 85 mph with higher gusts. Fabian is expected to lose it's tropical characteristics on Monday. Minimum central pressure is now 972 mb or 28.70 inches. large swells from Fabian continue to affect portions of the United States east coast, but should subside with time as Fabian moves away from the United States.

Hurricane Isabel became a hurricane at 11 AM EDT this morning and is getting better organized now. At 5 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 15.2 north, longitude 39.1 wet or about 1510 miles east of the leeward islands. Isabel is moving towards the west northwest at near 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are 80 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and Isabel will likely become a category 2 hurricane with 96-110 mph winds sometime on Monday. Isabel could become a major hurricane in 2-3 days as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb or 29.06 inches.

Also keep a close eye on the next tropical wave, which moved off the African coast today. That could become our next tropical depression and possibly named storm, Juan in the next day or two. Definitely keep an eye on this one as well!!! Another update later this evening on the entire tropics!!!

Jim

[weatherlover427]

Nice and detailed update Jim. Sure is busy right now. :o Good job as always. I enjoy reading your updates but usually don't post in them. I just felt like complimenting you today.

[wx247]

Very good discussion Jim. I agree. Is there any chance that Henri (or what is left of it) could affect Bermuda?

[rainstorm]

thanks jim!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

I doubt Henri will come close to Bermuda. It's moving northeast and on this track, it should stay well north of Bermuda. But even if Henri were to develop, it already looks more like the characteristic of a subtropical or extratropical feature, not a tropical type entity.

I think Bermuda will be fine and they need that nice fine break after Fabian!!!!

Jim

[wx247]

I agree... I was just curious about that possibility. Someone mentioned it a couple of days ago and so I was just revisiting the chances. I also don't usually comment in your posts but try to read every one of them.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

wx247...cool little band you got!