New Model Runs show SW turn

[KatDaddy]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[wow]

hmmm.... that's a big switch! I wonder what this is attributed to?

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Interesting!! I hope it becomes a fish for everyones sake!

[weathergymnast]

That would not boad well for the islands.

[cycloneye]

Hummm all the tropical models are west but what is the cause for that shift is it the ridge to be strong? What about the trough and if any Henri might effect have?

[dixiebreeze]

Katdaddy, seems like early on with Atlantic storms, there are always a couple of models that show a SW turn, but it rarely pans out. Wonder why that is.

[wxman57]

The question has been how the models are handling the ridge off the east U.S. coast post-Henri. I have said that something just "didn't look right" there in the long-range models. I think the ridge will be stonger. The models are seeing this now, thus the W-WSW (not SW) shift in the track).

[wow]

heck, this could, in fact, wind up in the GOM.

[OtherHD]

I would toss out the A98 solution for 2 reasons:

1) It's the NHC98

2) It's the NHC98

[wxman57]

I would toss out the A98 solution for 2 reasons:

1) It's the NHC98

2) It's the NHC98

You forgot the third reason..

3. It's the NHC98

LBAR can be thrown out, too. I think a chimpanzee throwing darts (while blindfolded and with his left foot) could consistently do better as a tropical model.

[wxman57]

heck, this could, in fact, wind up in the GOM.

Probably not in the GOM. No indications that the ridge would be THAT strong.

[southerngale]

Very interesting indeed! Do you all think GOM is still pretty safe from Isabel?

EDIT: ok, nevermind. I had already hit the reply button and missed wxman's post.

[OtherHD]

I thought the LBAR was good in the deep tropics?

[Stormcenter]

Now come on folks how can ANYONE say the GOM is safe from Isabelle when it is still way out in the Atlantic? The GOM residents SHOULD NOT feel safe from Isabelle at all. She could end up anywhere, it's way too early to make that call.

[Lindaloo]

It is my understanding that she will not get into the Gulf because of the ridge. So I feel we are safe in the Gulf.

[Guest]

I agree Stormcenter. Yes the ridge might in the end protect us - but how long is it going to be before she gets anywhere near that area - only moving 10 mph - this one is going to be a slow tracker. Never say never is my motto.

Patricia

[Lindaloo]

SSHHHH ticka!! something might hear you.

[wxman57]

Of course, no one knows 100% for sure that Isabel will not get into the Gulf. It IS a possibility, but probably a low one at this point. Now if all the models were showing a track into St. Lucia (middle of the Islands) then south of Cuba I'd say the GOM should watch out. But that's not the case with Isabel. All models now indicate that any ridge along the east U.S. coast will probably not be strong enough to steer Isabel that far west.

One thing is certain - we'll have a long time to discuss this.

[ameriwx2003]

Wxman57 you are correct. As Larrywx pointed out in another thread the odds are against a Cape Verde System ever making it into the Gulf:):).

[ColdFront77]

Sure, Linda... at this time the ridge isn't expected to be strong enough to keep Hurricane Isabel from the Gulf of Mexico. A lot can happen in the next several days as it moves toward the islands of the Caribbean and the United States (at least an approach).

The forecast strength and position of the high will (as it always is) be extremely important in the ultimate track of Isabel.