5:30 PM EDT.. TD Tonight Or Tommorow??

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chadtm80

5:30 PM EDT.. TD Tonight Or Tommorow??

#1 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Sep 07, 2003 4:36 pm

NHC 07Sep03 18:00Z


360
ABNT20 KNHC 072113 WSI DDS:072115
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FABIAN...LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND...ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI CENTERED ABOUT 160
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ON HURRICANE
ISABEL LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1510
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 07, 2003 4:45 pm

Chad if not tonight then they will wait for the first visbles to make sure where the low is and that means at 5 AM or 11 AM.
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Thunder44
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#3 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 07, 2003 4:47 pm

If they wait for visibles they will call a TD or TS till 11am, cuz the first visibles out there usually don't come out till around 9am EDT.
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wxman57
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What a Joke!

#4 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 07, 2003 4:48 pm

What a joke! This isn't a wave! It has a clear LLC. Quickscat shows a 40-50kt circulation as of 7:10Z last night. It has been a TD since it moved off Africa, now it's a TS. The NHC will most likely ignore it for a while longer then act surprised that "Juan" has formed all of a sudden.
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#5 Postby bkhusky2 » Sun Sep 07, 2003 4:49 pm

Thunder, the visible image will be out well before 9AM EST, probably more like 5AM EST, because the world rotates, and the sun comes up just off Africa much sooner than it does on the EC of the US.
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weatherlover427

#6 Postby weatherlover427 » Sun Sep 07, 2003 4:56 pm

IMO the NHC has been way too conservative this year. Why, I dunno; but to me it appears that they have been.
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ColdFront77

#7 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:49 pm

The National Hurricane Center wasn't too consevative with Erica and Grace in many people's opinions. :wink:
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