Should be interesting.
5-day Tropical Weather Outlook
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TropicalAnalystwx13
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5-day Tropical Weather Outlook
After working on it for half a decade, the National Hurricane Center announced at the recent National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 2012 Model Review Meeting that the 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook would be released for experimental purposes in 2013.
Should be interesting.
Should be interesting.
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wxman57
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Re: 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook
Richard Knabb said (at the AMS this week) that the NHC should be ready to go with the 5-day outlook just a little after the start of the 2013 season. They have just a few more things to work out and they may not be ready to go public right on June 1st.
I'll be interested to see how that works. Would they issue a forecast for a disturbance that has a 20% chance of development in the next 48hrs (todays' outlook format) but a 70% chance by day 4 or 5? Or will they always have a lower chance of development in the extended range? Will they "go for it" or not? If, as they say, they'll be basing predictions greatly upon model guidance, then they'd have to go with higher development chances beyond 48 hrs in many cases.
I'll be interested to see how that works. Would they issue a forecast for a disturbance that has a 20% chance of development in the next 48hrs (todays' outlook format) but a 70% chance by day 4 or 5? Or will they always have a lower chance of development in the extended range? Will they "go for it" or not? If, as they say, they'll be basing predictions greatly upon model guidance, then they'd have to go with higher development chances beyond 48 hrs in many cases.
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beoumont
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Re: 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook
wxman57"
I'll be interested to see how that works. Would they issue a forecast for a disturbance that has a 20% chance of development in the next 48hrs (todays' outlook format) but a 70% chance by day 4 or 5? Or will they always have a lower chance of development in the extended range? Will they "go for it" or not? If, as they say, they'll be basing predictions greatly upon model guidance, then they'd have to go with higher development chances beyond 48 hrs in many cases.
Just my guess, but they will simply
state that "the disturbance located near _____ has an X % chance of development into a tropical cyclone". No mention of in how many days specifically.
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List of 79 tropical cyclones intercepted by Richard Horodner:
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
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brunota2003
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Hurricane Andrew
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Re:
brunota2003 wrote:Or maybe break into down into two segments. One example could be out to 72 hours and the other is 72 to 120 hours.
Agreed, but I think it should be 0-48 and 48-120.
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