Original Forecast for Isabel...A'Comin West

[MWatkins]

The Euro solution is disconcerting...and the 18Z GFS that turns Isabel north at 70W or so in 8 days is hinging on a very suspicious looking cut off low...but not a trough. Read on for details...

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/2003-TC13.htm

Dicey week ahead.

MW

[cycloneye]

As always great forecast Mike but of course it causes concern for all who live in the northern islands in the leewards,the VI and Puerto Rico.

[JetMaxx]

I agree Mike....this hurricane is a great threat to the northeast Caribbean....and EVERYONE along the U.S. East Coast, particularly Floridians should monitor the progress of Isabel very closely.

Both Florida and Georgia have been very lucky in September for a very long time...looking at the model data this evening, I wonder if our luck is finally about to run out.

[dixiebreeze]

Thank Mike, I've been waiting for your analysis. Very succinct as always. It appears Isabel may be as intense as Fabian, but cause more concern and anxiety for the Islands and the SE US.

[jimberjack]

Thanks for forecast. Could be a very serious situation for many. It's early.. but an unimpeded run is a possibility for the SE US. This storm could avoid disruption by Hispaniola and churn right on into the Fl. straits in a real bad mood. Sure there are many possibilities...but at this stage ..the parameters on this system have me a little concerned.