1851+: More stats for 37 canes at first E of 40W & S of

[LarryWx]

I just looked over the data of the 37 (not 39 as per my correction just made in my other thread) hurricanes covering the period 1851-2002 that first formed east of 40W and south of 20N. Here are my findings:

- NONE of the 33 that missed the U.S. are in the too far south category. So, since 1851, no hurricane that formed east of 40W and south of 20N missed the U.S. because it went too far south.

- THREE of the 33 that missed the U.S. dissipated before recurvature: storm #4 of 1866 at 29.5W, storm # 2 of 1900 at 52.2W, and Joyce of 2000 at 64.9W. I'm counting storm #4 of 1866 in this classification although the "official" track for that one consists of only one lat., long pair! Obviously there is a lot of missing data for that storm. But it was a hurricane east of 40W and south of 20N per the record I viewed.

- The other 30 of the 33 that missed (91% of the U.S. misses) recurved east of the U.S.: 5 in the 40's west longitude, 12 in the 50's west long., 8 in the 60's west long., and 5 in the 70's west long.
Another way to look at this is to say that 9 made it to at least 70W and 4 (44%) of those later hit the U.S. So, reaching 70W appears to be pretty significant statisticswise.
Larry