FABIAN #46 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 080243
TCDAT5
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003

FABIAN MAY BE STARTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE CONVECTION STILL EXISTS NEAR THE
CENTER...IT IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ALSO...THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
EXPOSED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA...AND 65 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70
KT.

FABIAN IS NOW WELL INTO THE WESTERLIES AND COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND IT SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WITHIN 12-24 HR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS
A LARGE AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HR. DURING
THIS TIME...IT SHOULD MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP OVER THE WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.

INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA.
THANKS AGAIN TO OPC FOR THE COORDINATION ON THE FORECAST POINTS AND
INTENSITIES.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 45.3N 46.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 48.7N 41.5W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 09/0000Z 54.6N 33.3W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 09/1200Z 58.6N 31.6W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/0000Z 60.8N 32.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/0000Z 60.0N 39.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0000Z 56.0N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0000Z 55.0N 32.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL