New ECMWF

[Vortex]

posted by DT-Wxrisk---states will have graph and updated info in about an hour.



DT's Excerpt:

sunday Euro Isabel FL 8 days By DT-wxrisk
yes new sunday ecmwf has isabel heading for central FL--- Miami to Dayonta.

[Steve H.]

And again I maintain my theory, that the first place the models say it will go it WON'T, though Miami to Daytona is quite a spread. If it were to come to pass, most likely it would come in Miami south or thru the straits. If the destination is to be north of there, it would likely the Carolinas northward. Central and northern Florida rarely get major hurricanes. Only one I believe hit in this area directly, either in '28 or '29. So I see a Fran or a Georges, or a fish. Still too early. We can forecast with more certainty next Saturday. Cheers!!

[alicia-w]

dont you consider the panhandle to be northern florida? I think Opal was considered a major hurricane and Georges dumped 32 inches of rain on us in 3 days. we lost several trees and had a nice waterfall in our dining room.

[Steve H.]

My apologies. I meant the East Coast of Central an Northern Florida

[JetMaxx]

There have been several major hurricanes in the Palm Beach to Stuart area....the last being a 1949 monster that blew away the anemometer at PBI after recording a 140 mph gust. Farther north, 160 mph gusts were measured at Jupiter lighthouse and atop a fire station in Stuart.

The monsterous 1928 hurricane spread hurricane devastation from Palm Beach to Vero Beach...and 110+ mph winds as far north as Melbourne.

The worst mistake a coastal resident can ever make is believing their area is immune to a major hurricane. Daytona Beach and Cocoa Beach have both experienced winds in excess of 100 mph in hurricanes....and St Augustine has been badly damaged by severe hurricanes on several occasions since it's founding in 1542. In 1964, hurricane Dora produced 120-130 mph gusts in the St Augustine to Jacksonville Beach areas...along with a 10-12' storm surge that caused a lot of damage.

If hurricane Floyd hadn't recurved in 1999, most of the Florida East Coast from Broward county northward would have been devastated.

[Scott_inVA]

And again I maintain my theory, that the first place the models say it will go it WON'T, though Miami to Daytona is quite a spread. If it were to come to pass, most likely it would come in Miami south or thru the straits. If the destination is to be north of there, it would likely the Carolinas northward. Central and northern Florida rarely get major hurricanes. Only one I believe hit in this area directly, either in '28 or '29. So I see a Fran or a Georges, or a fish. Still too early. We can forecast with more certainty next Saturday. Cheers!!

I'm hard pressed to recall any event progged 7-10 days out that hit the mark. That's not really the function of models. But the EC remains the best, IMO, trend setter meaning it it sticks to a specific track, it has a good overall record.

ATTM, I do *not* believe any of the models have a grip on Ridging which to me is okay as we don't know what Henri will do, nor is the CONUS trof lift a done deal as currently depicted.

We'll see.

[ColdFront77]

What the models indicated Sunday evening, what they say today, and what they may say on and off this week can go back to what they said on Sunday as we move through this week into next.

In other words, Hurricane Isabel bears watching for the islands of the Caribbean and the United States east coast (if not ever the Gulf coast states).

[vortex100]

I know that the GFS model has great difficulties with forecasts beyond 5-7 days, but it was certainly correct in turning Fabian away from the U.S. coast. That forecast was over a week and a half beforehand. Well, it is doing the same with Isabel. The natural progression of troughs and ridges across the nation indicate this forecast may not be too far off. In fact, I would not be surprised if Bermuda gets clobbered again. Still, bears watching because the upper level troughing is not expected to be nearly as strong along the east coast as it was with Fabian.