HENRI #20 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 081429
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003

HENRI IS NOT AN IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AXIS AND
PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS IN A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER
LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATER...STRONG SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT
STRENGTHENING. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MERGE WITH AN ADJACENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS REMAINING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS SOON.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 055/7 WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE GREAT SCATTER IN CENTER FIXES. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OR MEANDERING
IN A FEW DAYS AS STEERING CURRENTS BECOME ILL-DEFINED. THE NHC
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 32.7N 75.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 33.3N 74.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 09/1200Z 33.8N 73.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 10/0000Z 34.3N 72.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/1200Z 34.7N 71.8W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1200Z 35.0N 71.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1200Z 35.0N 70.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z 35.0N 70.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL