Starting to become concerned

[Derek Ortt]

about Isabel.

Last night, as most know, I was well to the right. However, now, this looks to have been correct only through 72 hours. The longer periods were too slow and too far north as henri doesn't look as if it is going to weaken the ridge to any great degree. Therefore, a westerly turn, about 70-100 miles north of the islands looks likely, close enough to bring tropical storm conditions to the northern islands.

I also dont like the ridge to the north at T+120 hours. I sure dont want anything major in my back yard

[hurricanedude]

you implyinf Florida is at risk?

[Derek Ortt]

I am not implying any part of the US mainland is at risk. All I am saying is that a Fabian track is unlikely and that this should make it farther west

[hurricanedude]

ok, just wondering, I just saw the last part of your message, "dont need anything major in your back yard" I think much more west than fabian as well, but most historical storms miss the coast, so I would assume the chances of a near miss are better than a hit...but 10 days out I would be FOOLISH to even speculate, thanks for the insight Derek

[The_Cycloman_PR]

about Isabel. Therefore, a westerly turn, about 70-100 miles north of the islands looks likely, close enough to bring tropical storm conditions to the northern islands.

I also dont like the ridge to the north at T+120 hours. I sure dont want anything major in my back yard

I can hear this from almost anybody on the board, but from you? You always have your feet on the ground and don't jump early into any conclusions, and also you have been always very conservative when you write your posts. Hearing this from you make me think! Hmmm. You were right about Fabian and also with other systems in the past, also you have great meteorological knowledge. I am really starting to be concerned about this Isabel. :o

[Renata]

Starting to become concerned about Isabel.

Yep, I share your concern also. As someone wrote earlier today, this is a nail-biting situation and I fully agree.

It is looking too close for comfort. I am beginning to think that the northern most islands will be brushed and possibly - just possibly the Bahamas also.

The situation is quite fluid now and if I lived in the northern Caribbean I'd be a bit concerned.

[cycloneye]

Agree with Cycloman PR that comming from Derek is important to take note of what he is saying and I am more concerned from this afternoon when the track from NHC was ajusted westward.

[Derek Ortt]

Also, the track could be faster than the model guidance is suggesting, mainly because it is alreayd moving faster than model guidance. That being said, it is at leats 4 days from the Caribbean either way, time for it to bomb out, then weaken slightly

[Guest]

Anyone have link that shows all the islands in the caribbean ....

Patricia

[ColdFront77]

Map of the Caribbean Islands: http://www.showcaves.com/maps/Big/Caribbean.gif

[Tip]

The 06Z GFS is now coming into line with the European model's thinkin of a more westerly track. This is starting to get scary.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204s.gif

[mitchell]

about 70-100 miles north of the islands looks likely

WOW! Quite a forecast: placing a greater than 50% chance of a storm now 1400 miles from the Islands to pass within a 30 mile slot! Quite a gauntlet to be throwing down!

[Stephanie]

That is quite scary! The two high pressures up to the north have a nice little gap up along the eastern seaboard for Isabelle to follow if the pattern helps her to make a more northerly turn.

[JCT777]

Certainly Isabel is one to keep an eye on for residents of the northern Caribbean islands.