Update shows Isabel at 120 knots at 120 hours

[Steve H.]

News Updated: 10:09 06-Sep-2003
CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE CENTER 2003
A Weather Enthusiast Run Site Focusing on East Central Florida and the Entire Atlantic Hurricane Basin since 1995

Maintained by: John R. Cornelius - Cocoa, FL
and: Michael A. Cornelius - Orlando / New Smryna Beach, FL and Ed Dunham- Melbourne, FL
CFHC is NOT an official weather source, please only use us as a supplement to official weather outlets.
Recent Headlines:- (# Comments)
Current Storms:
06.Sep - Isabel Forms and Heads West (78)
05.Sep - Waiting for Henri (36)
01.Sep - Fabian for the Fish? (370)
30.Aug - TD#11 in the Gulf as Hurricane Fabian moves Westward (308)
28.Aug - Fabian Forms (116)
Storm Lat Lon Wind Pres Mvmt
TD Henri 32.7N 75.6W 35 MPH 1006 mb NE 8
Hur2 Isabel 16.9N 41.4W 105 MPH 970 mb W-NW 16
Hur1 Fabian 49.8N 39.2W 75 MPH 980 mb NE 39




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Important weather statements for Central Florida and tropical disturbance affected areas. (Newest on top. - Click Here to Retry if incomplete):



TD Henri:Public Advisory ([Printable Tracking Map] [Coordinate History] [Spotlight])

TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003

...POORLY-ORGANIZED HENRI CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE
75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...AND A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HENRI
IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MERGES WITH A
FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...32.7 N... 75.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

Storm Summary:
Tropical Depression Henri (TD Henri) Advisory #20 (11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003 )
At 32.7 N 75.6 W
Winds: 35 MPH Pressure: 1006 mb
Movement: NE 8







TD Henri:Strike Probabilites


SPFAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU SEP 11 2003

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

33.8N 73.5W 33 X X X 33 CAPE HATTERAS NC 10 3 1 1 15
34.3N 72.5W 16 3 2 X 21 NORFOLK VA 1 2 2 2 7
34.7N 71.8W 9 6 2 2 19 OCEAN CITY MD X 1 2 3 6
MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 2 3 5
MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 NEW YORK CITY NY X X 1 3 4
MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MONTAUK POINT NY X X 1 4 5
MYNN 251N 775W X X X 3 3 PROVIDENCE RI X X 1 4 5
MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 2 3 NANTUCKET MA X X 1 5 6
BERMUDA X X X 3 3 HYANNIS MA X X 1 4 5
MIAMI FL X X X 2 2 BOSTON MA X X X 4 4
W PALM BEACH FL X X X 2 2 PORTLAND ME X X X 3 3
FT PIERCE FL X X X 3 3 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 3 3
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 EASTPORT ME X X X 3 3
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 ST JOHN NB X X X 2 2
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 MONCTON NB X X X 2 2
SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2 YARMOUTH NS X X X 4 4
CHARLESTON SC X X 1 2 3 HALIFAX NS X X X 3 3
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 2 2 4 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2
WILMINGTON NC 1 1 2 3 7 EDDY POINT NS X X X 2 2
MOREHEAD CITY NC 6 2 2 1 11

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH









Hur1 Fabian:Public Advisory ([Printable Tracking Map][Coordinate History][Spotlight])

TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FABIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON SEP 08 2003

...FABIAN BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 49.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST OR ABOUT 680
MILES...1095 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

FABIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 39 MPH...63 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 345 MILES...555 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST. SEE STATEMENTS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR
DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...49.8 N... 39.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 39 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FABIAN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

Storm Summary:
Category 1 Hurricane Fabian (Hur Fabian) Advisory #48 (11 AM AST MON SEP 08 2003 )
At 49.8 N 39.2 W
Winds: 75 MPH Pressure: 980 mb
Movement: NE 39







TD Henri:Marine/Forecast Update

TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122003
1500Z MON SEP 08 2003

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 75.6W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 75.6W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 75.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.3N 74.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.8N 73.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.3N 72.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 34.7N 71.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.0N 71.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 35.0N 70.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 35.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 75.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH








Hur1 Fabian:Strike Probabilites


SPFAT5
HURRICANE FABIAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON SEP 08 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 49.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU SEP 11 2003

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

58.0N 32.7W 29 X 1 X 30 58.7N 38.4W 7 6 2 2 17
59.7N 35.2W 13 5 1 1 20 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH









Hur1 Fabian:Marine/Forecast Update

TCMAT5
HURRICANE FABIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102003
1500Z MON SEP 08 2003

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.8N 39.2W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 34 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 100SE 75SW 60NW.
50 KT.......125NE 150SE 150SW 100NW.
34 KT.......225NE 300SE 250SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 375SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.8N 39.2W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.4N 40.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 53.7N 34.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 100SE 75SW 45NW.
34 KT...225NE 300SE 250SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 58.0N 32.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...225NE 325SE 300SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 59.7N 35.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
50 KT...175NE 100SE 0SW 150NW.
34 KT...225NE 350SE 350SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 58.7N 38.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 150SW 200NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 57.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 300SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.8N 39.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON FABIAN.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH








Hur2 Isabel:Strike Probabilites


SPFAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON SEP 08 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU SEP 11 2003

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

18.6N 46.8W 47 X X X 47 19.4N 51.1W X 21 3 1 25
19.2N 49.1W 16 16 1 X 33 TAPA 171N 618W X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART









Hur2 Isabel:Marine/Forecast Update

TCMAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003
1500Z MON SEP 08 2003

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 42.6W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 42.6W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 42.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.9N 44.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.6N 46.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.2N 49.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.4N 51.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 130SW 150NW.
Here's the updated Marine forecast. Kinda makes you feel like you just took a steep drop on a roller coaster:


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 19.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 20.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

North of St. Maarten heading toward the Bahamas :o . I know, its early yet!!!!

[dixiebreeze]

962 mb IS PRETTY DARN IMPRESSIVE THIS EARLY ON. HOPE FOLKS IN THE ISLANDS ARE NOT BEING COMPLACENT. THEY HAVE DODGED A FEW RECENTLY, BUT NO ONE IS LUCKY 100 PERCENT OF THE TIME. LET'S HOPE SHE VEERS TO THE NW OF THE ISLANDS.

[Anonymous]

This is true Dixiebreeze. I hope they are all getting prepared for this one. We can only hope and pray that this one will decide to go fish.

[JCT777]

Isabel could very well be too close for comfort for those in the islands. A Cat 3 (or stronger) hurricane is definitely not what they need! :o

[Rainband]

Yes..like I read before.."there is no where to go on an island".we in the CONUS can go inland or north..if need be but they are like sitting ducks :o Hope they aren't hit

[GalvestonDuck]

they are like sitting ducks

:o AFLAC!

[Anonymous]

I think if it were me I would be trying to get off those islands now.

[Lindaloo]

Aren't the building codes on the islands rather strict? I heard that they enforce them down there.

But then again, there is nothing a building code can do for storm surge.

[Anonymous]

No doubt in my mind........this is a very dangerous cane. It's deepening very rapidly. I hope and pray it's a fish storm. I don't want this to hit the Islands or the EC. It would be a catastrophe. NHC thinks Izzy will become a CAT4 by Later today or tonight.

This is very, very serious ppl.

Get prepped up in the Islands, and if I were you, I would get OFF the islands.

Isabel is not to be taken lightly.


-Jeb

[GalvestonDuck]

Aren't the building codes on the islands rather strict? I heard that they enforce them down there.

But then again, there is nothing a building code can do for storm surge.

I remember hearing on the news that in Bermuda, the outer walls of buildings and homes there were required to be at least 8 inches thick as a hurricane-damage prevention measure.

[Steve H.]

Yes, the discussion on Isabel has her possibly going a bit south of due west due to a trough in the eastern Atlantic. Again, the inital latitude of this storm is meaningless in this case due to the strong ridge at 31.5. Don't like the looks of this one. We generally know when a fish is a fish. This one never looked like a fish to me!! That's what has me concerned. Gonna be close for the Islands and the east coast.