SFLcane wrote:Plently of complacency here across southern florida in my view with most storms recurving last couple seasons. Its been 22 years since a significant hurricane strike across dade/broward counties.
i do think Florida has an above normal risk this year as I forsee the pattern featuring a trough over the Lakes but yet an active western Atlantic Ridge. This would steer storms close to the southeast coast. Very active capeverde season with 04 type tracks.
I tend to agree that here in S. Florida, many are somewhat complacent. I do think that the majority of those who I have spoken to are certainly more cognizant of the risks than before, but that does not necessarily translate into being better prepared for such an event - and this is really where concerns lie. "Knowing" about a risk, and the effort (or cost) to obtain certain resources in the event of dealing with the reeling impacts from a hurricane landfall, are two different things. I do have a sense though, that more people have a better anticipation of actions they will take if a hurricane approaches. Over the past few years, it seems evident to me that commercial interests (office parks, condominium associations, etc) are more attune to some level of preparation and most seem to conduct the necessary tree pruning each season. Other steps I am aware include some (or all?) gas stations and super markets to have installed emergency power (generator) back up systems in the event of power outages. I do not know how well tested these systems have been or answers to how fuel can/will be available for these back up systems, but in theory these steps would better aid in aftermath access to food, water, & supplies (well, unless a Cat. 5 hits! - then what??).
As I see it, there has been a greater trending of a Eastern Conus & W. Atlantic ridge at the steering levels which does lead me to also think that Florida is at an above normal risk this year and will prepare accordingly. Whether or not I am right is a moot point. For the discussion of preparedness, it is irrelevant whether I, NHC, or a Palm Reader can accurately predict who might be impacted by a hurricane landfall. Second guessing the weather, political events, or even whether we'll quite get to the next gas station on the fumes remaining in the tank.... 
is all part of our human nature. Regardless of forecast or regardless of "lull", inherent risk comes with the territory of living in any potential hurricane impact zone. No one should fault those willing to assume that risk, but then at some point there has got to be some personal accountability for doing so as well. Each of us need make those appropriate preparations for ourselves as well as a stepped plan of action that does not leave each of us scrambling at the last minute with the wind already starting to blow.
Most of us here range from "weather buffs to "weather experts" and have a greater awareness of the severe impacts that a hurricane (or other severe weather, eg. Oklahoma tornados) can cause. Perhaps if the "uninitiated", newly transplanted residents, tourists, the elderly, or the general public as a whole were to AT MINIMUM have a "Risk Plan" in place, than that alone might alleviate loss of life. During a severe weather event, often the greatest risk occurs when people have no plan, can't decide whether to stay or leave, and end up making a last moment decision that causes them to risk getting caught traveling when not safe to drive. Other issues include getting caught in severe traffic by those others who have waited to the last moment. Other risks caused by indecision involve the last moment decision to leave but because of weather conditions, bridge closings, downed power lines & trees, etc. emergency officials may have no way to get to someone to help.
A "risk plan" could be as simple as having already thought out (and communicated with others) the coarse of action that one will take when an immediate "stay or go" decision arises. Know "where" you will go and "what" basic items that you would anticipate taking with you If one at least acknowledges the potential risk of one day having to leave in a hurry, than perhaps a very small amount of clothes, medicine, personal items can be pre-stored at an already determined family member or friends home. There should be a "plan a" and a "plan b" so if the person that you planned on staying with during the threat of a hurricane were out of town and/or simply not home, than a second planned location should also be pre-determined and planned for. Pets also need to be taken into account when making this plan. Shelters will not typically allow pets, friends/family might have concerns or allergies to them as well, and finally food/water need to be also be taken into account for pets too. Then, at an already decided level of risk (Storm Warning, Hurricane Watch, or Hurricane Warning) one then simply need anticipate the time necessary to secure outside items, gather important papers (bank/financial records, birth/death/marriage certificates, personal I.D., legal paperwork, important letters, notes, photos, etc), try to have a two week supply of medications, cash, communication equipment such as laptop for email, cell phone, etc (and some plan or way to charge a cell phone, laptop etc should the power go out where you will be), and finally, before leaving...... make sure to do two more important things-
1) Provide at least 3 other people with your contact info & email, as well as the name, address, contact info of the person you plan on staying with
2) simply shut off unnecessary gas or electric to reduce the risk of fire Time and space must at some point limit the amount of "stuff" that one can reasonably gather and take with them. As an oversight, I inadvertently may have left out other items or points of information that could be equally critical to others. I encourage anyone to amend or add any other items/information that could also be important. If each of our own conversations, this thread, or any other means somehow cause even one or two others to simply take 20 extra minutes to contemplate what they might do, or use this plan as a refrigerator magnet reminder, a disaster plan tool that a property manager could use, or simply share with a friend or family member....than we will have done as much as "we" responsibly can for ourselves or others.
At the end of the day, we neither possess the power to control the actions of all, the preventive measures by some, nor where any one hurricane might strike. Beyond our best intentions and efforts, what remains is our banter, observations, opinions, or our own & others' forecast regarding the upcoming hurricane season. Regardless how it all finally plays out, our posts are merely letters and words blowing in the wind.
