6Z GFS "BURP!"...Izzy back on "track"

[Scott_inVA]

6Z was a classic loogie-hocker.
12Z Gone Fishin'
18Z who knows

+D5 is, IMO, nearly pointless ATTM. Henri and the ridging are NOT doing well with mods. Plotting the long range GFS borders on misrepresentation. I received 7 emails between the 6Z and the 12Z asking if she's really coming into Florida. Really beginning to think publishing the +D5 plots is futile and freaks people out for no reason.

I usually do my own thing but comments are welcome.
I understand what's going on....apparently lots of others do not and the 6 hour freak-out is not healthy for anyone.

[bev1]

Scott, I enjoy watching the models on your site. Keep up the good work. After many years of watching models shift this way and that I have learned to see them for what they are worth. I have seen too many times a storm predicted to head right up the river to New Orleans and end up anywhere but here. I prepare and pray and watch the IR, vis sat., read other opinions and watch the local mets and then make my own decisions and preparations. I don't take any storm lightly and have great respect for the powerful force that is nature. As long as there are people on this planet there will be those that panic over the "latest model run" LOL. Again, thanks for the information you provide.
Bev

[JetMaxx]

Scott, this hurricane IS IMO a serious threat to Florida...

Regardless of the GFS hopping around beyond 168 hours....last night's Euro was quite alarming to me....because it's normally very accurate with mature hurricanes; also its only run once per day, and far less prone to wild swings..

I can tell you with reasonable assurance that Isabel will be located somewhere near the Turks and Caicos Islands/ north of Hispanola in 6 days -- heading toward the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula.

I can't tell you yet if it will continue and make a direct hit on Florida as the 06z GFS progged....or will turn sharply and roar up the Atlantic seaboard near or just offshore as the 12z GFS proggs -- but IMHO IF Isabel doesn't make a direct hit on SoFla...it's going to be like Floyd was in 1999 -- much too close for comfort :o :o

PW

[Scott_inVA]

Scott, this hurricane IS IMO a serious threat to Florida...

Regardless of the GFS hopping around beyond 168 hours....last night's Euro was quite alarming to me....because it's normally very accurate with mature hurricanes; also its only run once per day, and far less prone to wild swings..

I can tell you with reasonable assurance that Isabel will be located somewhere near the Turks and Caicos Islands/ north of Hispanola in 6 days -- heading toward the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula.

I can't tell you yet if it will continue and make a direct hit on Florida as the 06z GFS progged....or will turn sharply and roar up the Atlantic seaboard near or just offshore as the 12z GFS proggs -- but IMHO IF Isabel doesn't make a direct hit on SoFla...it's going to be like Floyd was in 1999 -- much too close for comfort :o :o

PW

Bahamas to Florida...I am inclined to agree, Perry.

[JCT777]

but IMHO IF Isabel doesn't make a direct hit on SoFla...it's going to be like Floyd was in 1999 -- much too close for comfort :o :o

Eeek! The last thing east coast residents from the Carolinas on north need right now is Floyd Part 2! My area got over 7 inches of rain in one day from Floyd. Since the ground is pretty well saturated now (which it was NOT in 1999 for Floyd), that could spell some very serious flooding! :o

For the moment, I am just watching Isabel and will not become overly concerned until she is much closer to the U.S.

[ameriwx2003]

I would agree also.. Scot and Perry, Bahamas to Florida. I agree Scott.. the models past 5 or 7 days are shaky.The one trend I have noticed is that the GFS has been a little further West before it does send Izzy north.. Lets see what todays Euro shows that has been the most consistent so far:):).. Oh well looks like several days of some good discussions ahead;):)

[wow]

Isabel might pull a Floyd. Remember when Floyd was nearing the Bahamas and was forecast to hit Florida? ...then it was pushed to the GA coast.. then SC... until it hit...

...Wilmington, NC.

If Isabel is still a major hurricane by the time she's coming towards the bahamas, she will be "probing for a weakness in the ridge," as JB would say. This will be the key. Where will Isabel be when and if the ridge begines to weaken enough to give her a northern component to her track.

[jfaul]

Isabel might pull a Floyd. Remember when Floyd was nearing the Bahamas and was forecast to hit Florida? ...then it was pushed to the GA coast.. then SC... until it hit...

...Wilmington, NC.

If Isabel is still a major hurricane by the time she's coming towards the bahamas, she will be "probing for a weakness in the ridge," as JB would say. This will be the key. Where will Isabel be when and if the ridge begines to weaken enough to give her a northern component to her track.

no

floyd was predicted to do what it did which was make a hard right and go north..problem was we had to prepare in florida like it was coming at us because the point where it was turning was in the bahamas and if it missed the turn it would have been to late. there is no signs anywhere this ridge is breaking down.