Water temps?

[zoeyann]

Last year when Louisiana got hit by Izzy and Lily we were told that the water temps from the first one helped stile the second, but in a program I watched they said that it was cool enough for the water temps to not get back up, but at this time of year they can heat back up within a week. Is that correct, and if it is how much will Fabian's crossing affect Isabel? Also if Henri is flopping won't that boad well for the ridge that is suppose to keep her moving west? Just a couple of questions I had. Thanks for any responses.

[wxman57]

Last year when Louisiana got hit by Izzy and Lily we were told that the water temps from the first one helped stile the second, but in a program I watched they said that it was cool enough for the water temps to not get back up, but at this time of year they can heat back up within a week. Is that correct, and if it is how much will Fabian's crossing affect Isabel? Also if Henri is flopping won't that boad well for the ridge that is suppose to keep her moving west? Just a couple of questions I had. Thanks for any responses.

It wasn't water temperatures that caused Lili to weaken so fast. Consider this, Lili reached peak intensity right over those same "isidore-cooled" waters. What caused Lili to weaken was the upper-low to its northwest lifting out, thus losing the enhanced outflow. Without a suffiicient outflow mechanism in place, Lili weakened very fast. That, and significantly increased wind shear near the coast.

That said, take a look at the North Atlantic SST chart for yesterday and you'll see that the water in advance of Isabel is PLENTY warm enough:

http://www.navo.navy.mil/LIBRARY/Specia ... index.html

Higher-resolution SST graphics do show some reduction in SSTs north of the eastern Caribbean:

https://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/imag ... 6/proa.gif

For more SST info, check here:

https://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/main.pl?ocean

[zoeyann]

Thank you so much wxman57 I was misinformed, but that helped to clear it up. Even though a met told us that the water temps were resonsible for Lili's fizzle it seemed weird how she was strong over the same waters that supposedly caused her to weaken, but simply didn't know for sure.