Area of disturbed weather in Western Carribean (Is 93L)

[ouragans]

I suspect if covection persists overnight into tomorrow we may see an Invest 94 L designated. We will see.

Did I miss something? Did we have 93L already? This one should be 93L if it develops

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA IN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Gustywind]

I suspect if covection persists overnight into tomorrow we may see an Invest 94 L designated. We will see.

Did I miss something? Did we have 93L already? This one should be 93L if it develops

Hey hey how are you ouragans ? Glad to see you there as you were pretty shy the last months . We don't forget you and your precious analysis at this period of the year. Looks like things are progressively heating up there. Let's see what happens.

[ouragans]

Hey hey how are you ouragans ? Glad to see you there as you were pretty shy the last months . We don't forget you and your precious analysis at this period of the year. Looks like things are progressively heating up there. Let's see what happens.

please don't forget me I'm pretty sure we'll have a rainbow-like month of August, and I should be there after Aug. 12th

[Gustywind]

Hey hey how are you ouragans ? Glad to see you there as you were pretty shy the last months . We don't forget you and your precious analysis at this period of the year. Looks like things are progressively heating up there. Let's see what happens.

please don't forget me I'm pretty sure we'll have a rainbow-like month of August, and I should be there after Aug. 12th

That's a very good thing Agree with you. We don't forget you for sure, the friendly links are always strong i hope so.

[NDG]

This disturbance has a chance to organize before coming ashore in Belize tomorrow night, IMO. Question is if will have enough time over open waters in the BOC to organize further.

[srainhoutx]

I suspect if covection persists overnight into tomorrow we may see an Invest 94 L designated. We will see.

Did I miss something? Did we have 93L already? This one should be 93L if it develops

You are correct, ourgans I guess my aging mind turned to that short lived 93E a week or two ago. I stand corrected. I see the NHC has raised the chance of developing to 20%. There was a nice convective burst of shore of Honduras last night that maintained this feature. We'll see what the next 24 hours bring since the overnight models are not sure where this disturbance actually develops (EPAC Gulf of Tehuantepec or Bay of Campeche). Monsoonal gyre/broad low pressure systems tend to give the models fits. Remember the Debby debacle last year when the Euro insisted that it would be a NW Gulf threat and the GFS remained steadfast in a sloppy TS heading toward the NE Gulf.

[SFLcane]

Invest 93L is up for this disturbance.

[cycloneye]

Invest 93L is up for this disturbance.

Is not up yet at NRL.

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

Go to at active storms/invests forum to continue the discussions. 93L main discussion thread