18Z GFS = Fish? - Possibly Bermuda Storm? - NE U.S. Threat?

#1 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:41 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

The 18Z is similar to the 12Z, but farther east with the north turn. Could Bermuda be hit AGAIN with an even more powerful storm? The odds are against another perfect hit, but I'd be concerned if I lived there.....

Derek Ortt · #2 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:46 pm

That track seems quite slow, at T+204 it is still just at the latitude of Bermuda. That implies a motion of about 5KT, which seems quite unreasonable at this time

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:49 pm

Now let's see if 18z NOGAPS follow GFS on that same line and if so then the trend may be starting ti change but with one model doing that I prefer to wait for the other globals to come out.

severestorm · #4 Postby **severestorm** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:49 pm

It shows a BIG hit for NJ/NYC...

ameriwx2003 · #5 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:50 pm

GFS 300 HR POSITION:):)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _300.shtml

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:53 pm

Actually, with the overall details continually jumping from run to run and especially with a lot of 18z GFS runs (which I absolutely despise for IMO, some of the oddest solutions). And right now I don't have a lot of certainty and any stock on most of the models at this point.

Basically the GFS isn't totally grasping details in regards to the strength of the progged ridge and the remnants of Henri's impact. Right now, virtually every model has a different idea of how to handle Isabel in regards to timing differences. The tropical models are just as uncertain in regards to Isabel taking her anywhere.

SF

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:55 pm

ameriwx2003 wrote:GFS 300 HR POSITION:):)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _300.shtml

Hey, that's headed for rainstorm's backyard. :o

ameriwx2003 · #8 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:56 pm

SF.. I agree.. so far not to much consistency in the model runs. Though the Euro has been the most consistent it seems so far. It will be interesting to see how todays run comes out:):)

#9 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:56 pm

I think it's highely unlikely that in 8 days 9/16 that this storm will only be approximately 250 miles N of PR. I don't buy it but it does remain consistent in a landfall in the U.S. Miami this morning and NJ tonight....Personally with such a strong ridge to the North once making its turn I expect it to move west at around 15 mph. Now once in the bahamas then I could see a decrease in forward speed but overall this run is lacking....

ameriwx2003 · #10 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:59 pm

I would have to agree with Deerek and Vortex, the GFS sure does seem rather slow

:)

wow · #11 Postby **wow** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:07 pm

Still goes to show that there's a lot that needs to be worked out. Where will the ridge be centered as it approaches the Bahamas? How fast will she be moving then? All all this will determine when Isabel will start its way WNW, NW... whether it begins as it approaches PR, the Bahamas, or while it's over Florida.

#12 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:46 pm

I agree, too much hoppin' around for my tastes. I'll have more confidence when the models forecast the same thing for a few days straight.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:47 pm

Agree 57 on that.

#14 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:54 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
ameriwx2003 wrote:GFS 300 HR POSITION:):)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _300.shtml

Hey, that's headed for rainstorm's backyard. :o

NO, actually it's heading for MY BACKYARD through the Delaware Bay! :o

18Z GFS = Fish? - Possibly Bermuda Storm? - NE U.S. Threat?

18Z GFS = Fish? - Possibly Bermuda Storm? - NE U.S. Threat?

18z-Bad run IMO

Agree

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