Hurricane Isabel has moved .7 degrees N in just 6 hours

[rob8303]

Based on this hurricane's .7 degree shift to the N in just 6 hours, I am now ready to declare this hurricane a fish. I don't buy the westward shift that the models are showing. Sorry, yell at me if you want and call me a fool, but .7 degrees in just 6 hours, this thing is going straight north and will be a fish. Show me some decrease in this north trend and I'll eat crow and recant my statement forever.

[JCT777]

No yelling here, but I do think this storm will soon start moving almost due west, probably within the next 24 to 36 hours. Of course, I could also be wrong - but the monster ridge that is building in does not look like it will allow Isabel to recurve and become a fish.

[ameriwx2003]

Rob.. Nope no name calling from me.. the North track looks to bend back to the west.Instead of me babbling why I think that will happen read Mwatkins post , he gives a good explanation IMHO.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=12630

[rob8303]

maybe the models have this ridge far, far too strong? Does it even exist? I know that sounds stupid and troll like to say but why isn't the ridge affecting it?

[PTrackerLA]

I would think this one would be a fish but with all or jsut about all of the models showing a due west turn, you can't ignore that...

[rob8303]

how far N do you think it will get in latitude before it stops going north?

[GalvestonDuck]

Can I wishcast her to be a fish??

God knows she's beautiful to watch way out there in the water, but I don't want to see her landfall anywhere.

[Anonymous]

Rob I think instead of .7 to the north movement you may have just seen a very intense hurricane wobble, therefore it will appear that it is moving more north than it actually is. Just my opinion.

[rob8303]

no thunder, nhc at 5 has it plotted at 17.9 n from 17.2 this afternoon. very troubling to model guidance.

[Rainband]

I would love for you to be right..but MW explained why and what you are seeing. BTW there is unfortunately a MONSTER ridge..so unless that changes the west track continues

[Anonymous]

Yes you are right Rainband unless the ridge magically disappears we can expect a west tracking storm for who knows how many days

[bkhusky2]

With all the models pointing to a W, and maybe even a WSW turn, can't ignore that. (like posted above) I'm getting concerned this may make it into the Caribbean at one point.

[ColdFront77]

The latitude and longitude points don't always change according to how many miles a tropical cyclone has moved. When the center of a tropical system is relocated, the relocated latitude and longitude points obviously will not be the difference in how many miles the cyclone has travelled, rather a "jump" on a tracking map.

If you measure the distance between the last plot and a relocated plot you are getting a false movement of the system. The correct movement of the storm will usually be what it was during the last advisory.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I don't think Isabel will remain a fish for her entire life. The ridge is obvious to the north and is going to direct this storm west. Land is far away, but it will grow closer, unfortunately, as we watch this system, IMO.

[Derek Ortt]

Most global models had this track. NHC was too far to the south with their initial tracks is all. They went south of the guidance, now they have very large errors to show for it (as do I, despite being the farthest north, I also was too south and have continued my trend of bad forward speed)

[abajan]

Despite what some may have stated, the NHC has done a pretty good job over the past few years forecasting where the various cyclones would go.

I have no reason to think otherwise regarding Isabel. It'll turn west, just like they said.