Scary!! Look......

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

http://207.198.116.233/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm

[Hurrilurker]

http://207.198.116.233/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm

Uhhhh what's so scary? What am I supposed to be looking at on this page? BTW, all the links on that page are dead for me, I only get messages like:

Code: Select all

The requested URL /hurricane/hurricane%20Foreasts.html was not found on this server

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

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WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE HURRICANE SEASON 2003?

1ST TROPICAL CYCLONES OF THE SEASON. DO THEY MEAN ANYTHING?

TROPICAL WAVE CHECK LIST

ANALYSIS: FORECAST DISCUSSIONS issued 830 AM EDT... AND 830PM (ONCE a TC crosses 60 W Longitude... there is a Midday update)
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
1200 NOON 8 SEPT

Isabel will make category 4 by Tuesday. BUT does Isabel turn out to sea...? Hit the SE / east Coast OR pass across FL and into the Gulf Of Mexico?

INTO THE GULF:… UNLIKELY. In order for this to happen Isabel would which formed near 30 W Longitude would have to move essentially due W until 90 W Longitude. No Hurricane has ever moved DUE west for that long distance.

OUT TO SEA? NO. All the data and current satellite pictures show a very strong ridge of High JUST to North of Isabel at 30 N latitude. This Ridge is rather Far to the south for a high pressure ridge in the central Atlantic and it will force Isabel to bend to the west. THAT Ridge High pressure did Not exists with Fabian. BY sept 12-13 Isabel will be near the Lee ward island OR Just to the North… maybe 100 Miles N of Puerto Rico.


The Sunday European Model has Isabel in the Bahamas heading for Florida http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/restric ... 0p_7d.html Now if you look over the Midwest you will see a strong cold front sweeping through. THAT cold front and Upper trough will be the KEY to Isabel. The day 9 and 10 European STALLS Isabel just east of FLORIDA and the cold front does NOT pick the Huricane and turn her out to sea.

The MONDAY Canadian STRONGLY Matches the European as it has Isabel in the Bahamas day 8 and turns it North UP the east coast day 9-10

http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_192_4pan.gif http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_216_4pan.gif

The Morning ( 00z GFS) Model stalls Isabel WELL east of the Bahamas day 8 to day 10 then turns Isabel North out to sea. This is b/c the model over develops a trough in the Midwest then by the time Isabel resumes its West move it runs into the trough and its bub bye Isabel...

BUT like I have stated before This is the 3rd NEW solution in the last 3 runs... Recall Sunday Midday the GFS had isabel in NYC!!! This sort of wild inconsistency should tell you that the GFS right now is NOT reliable. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_276s.gif The Monday 6z GFS ( comes out by 6am) has a NEW solution again!!!! Now it
has Isabel over PR or JUST to the North then moves her into the Bahamas then Into Miami and UP the FL coast. This sort of track is fairly close to the European and Canadian models. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240s.gif WHY the change? The 6z GFS has the trough in the Midwest Missing Isabel as seen here... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168s.gif

Looking at midday data I am beginning to notice a trend appear on some of the medium-range models with regard to how Isabel may actually move as it approaches Florida and the East coast of United States around September 14 -- 15. I've seen the operational run from last nights European model at day 8 9 -10... and they are very similar to the Saturday night ECWMF run. Both runs stall Isabel off the East coast of Florida somewhere in the Bahamas as it tries to figure out what's going to happen with the Midwest cold front that will move through the eastern United States September 14 - 16. ( SORRY I CANNOT PRESENT THE OP ECWMF maps)

Now we see the same development occurring with the last few runs of the GFS. The new 12z GFS stalls Isabel off the FL coast as the sharp strong cold front swings through the Midwest and East coast. This trough is close enough so that it stops Isabel' s westward movement but not close enough to pick hurricane up in turn out to Sea especially given the fact that Isabel will likely be a massive category Four or five hurricane.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

Thus while the 0zz 6z and 12z runs all feature vastly different solutions with regard to Isabel -00z out to sea like Fabian -6z does a massive hit on FL and then up the east coast like Donna in 1960-- 12z has a east coast strike from NC to Long Island without FL coast -- these models are showing that Isabel stalls just east of the FL coast.

This is going to be a key forecast dilemma and will be the key synoptic problems that forecasters will have to deal with by this weekend. Is the trough that comes in across the Plains and Midwest going to be deep enough to turn Isabel out to sea? IF Isabel is at say 24N latitude the answer is a strong probability that the trough will NOT be able to do so . If the trough does miss Isabel then what happens after Sept 15-16?

The midday American model brings in another trough in across the Plains and Midwest which ends up capturing Isabel and pulls the hurricane northward just off the east coast and slams into the Northeast and New England. However this solution is far too speculative for me to accept.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _300.shtml Right now my main focus is going to be 1) does the Midwest trough that swings through the East Coast September 14th through the 16th bypass Isabel? Right now I strongly think that will be the case. If so then 2) what happens to Isabel as she drifts off FL and /or SE coast?


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125PM EDT SEPT 7

The 00z GFS brings Isabel to or NEAR Puerto Rico day 7 -- Just like last nights ECMWF did.... then turned her
out to sea becuase the Model is so wretched after day 7 that it comes up with a overall pattern that is not even close
to what reality is.

The 12z gfs surface map is much different. It also has Isabel near or Over PR just like the 00z run did and last nights Ecmwf

Upper air map shows a deep trough over the Rockies and Ridge over eastern US

By day 10 the 00z GFS had isabel nearing SE Bahamas BUT turns it out to sea sept 19-20 when that BIG trough over the
Midwest reaches the east coast.
Day 10 00z GFS 500 surface map The problem is that the 00z GFS solution does NOT match the
ECMWF OR any of the GFS ENSEMBLES-- which tells me that the 00z GFS is BS.

This is confirmed by the The 12z sunday GFS that now has a VASTLY different pattern when compared to the 2 previous maps
( 00z gfs Day10). The trough over the Midwest is Much weaker and there is a new large trough coming into the Pacific NW. While this is not what the ECMWF has per se it is a lot closer to the overall idea of a trough setting up in the western US and a ridge over the eastern US.

At the Surface Isabel is making a turn to the NW as she approaches the SE

As I showed earlier the 00z GFS from Sunday Morning showed another trough coming into the Eastern US sept 19 and Kicked
isabel out to sea. Now compare THAT to what the GFS showed EARLIER from 00z Sunday VALID same time



At day 12 SEPT 19 we have ACCORDING TO THIS MODEL a east coast hurricane pattern setting up.
The huge trough over the West coast can be seen as well as the Ridge over the Eastern US.

Again this Idea of how the overall pattern will look by sept 14-15 is correct IMO BUT
will take place a few days earlier. At the surface Isabel nears the coast

and we have Landfall in NYC Long island SE New england Boston area. DO I "BUY" any of this?
NO!!! The reason is the GFS consistent tendency to over develops troughs and as a result pull Canes to the NW then N too
soon. This scenario as I have described is NOT likely to happen -- it is barely a possibility. BUT the date is interesting... sept 21 2003
a equinox storm.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I did not have a problem with the link.....Hope the above will help you!

[HurricaneQueen]

745 PM SEPT 8

The Monday evening European model is continuing to show a huge hurricane parked either OVER Miami for a 24-48 hr period (WOW) or JUST off the south / central Fl coast where she stalls as the big midwest cold front on SEPT 14-15 passes well by to her N off the NE US coast.

The Euro has a southern approach day 5-6 passing along 22n-24N . At Day 7 there is a HUGE trough that is Negatively tilted and amplfying
over the Midwest -- with a closed 500 Low over the GL. Its something one would expect to see on the GFS-- that is how RADICAL the monday ecmwf is.

The Evening American (GFS) model again shows a massive hit on the east coast with Isabel Stalled Further to the east-- JUST North of Hati / Dom Republic...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 92_s.shtml

Then the next trough moves into the MIDWEST this Pulls isabel Into NC -- hatteras Sept 19-20 ( this would be on the EQUINOX!! so there would be extra high tides) then passes directly over Norfolk then UP the chessy bay which floods DC with 10-15 feet of water as well as inner harbor baltimore and Annapolis ( this is what happened in the CAT 1 1933 Hurricane) ocean city MD takes massve Damage... NOTE the SE winds fetch!!! ...

And the BIG cities of the NE and coastal NJ and LI and NYC ... would see worse Hurricane - high winds since Donna 1960.... ACCORDING to the 18z MONDAY GFS MODEL. I will post some maps on DONNA's Upper air maps from 1960 later this evening b/c of the similarities with the overall pattern.

Of course I think the GFS is quite wrong on this for several reasons.... but the FL and EC theat is increasing...

But the point is that evening Euro and GFS both show the 1st Midwest trough and its surface cold front Missing or by passsing Isabel as it swings through the Northeast and weakens. This may allow isabel to stall either OVER south FL for a 24-48 hr period ( wow.....) OR stall JUST to the east in the central Bahamas.
Then the next trough arrives-- according to the nightmare-ish 18z GFS...

Again I can only see as far as the 17th -18th with any confidence so I will let the 18z GFS thing just hang out there.

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[Steve H.]

Good analysis. As each day passes we'll watch the trends :o

[Stephanie]

Thanks HQ for that analysis!

[wxman57]

Just about every link on that page is dead in NS 7.1 and IE 5.5 for me. I know the trouble. I think the problem is that the webmaster put spaces in the URLs (not allowed). When he did this, his HTML editor put in garbage for the spaces. See the link below:

http://207.198.116.233/hurricane/hurric ... easts.html

Note the %2520 between hurricane and Forecasts. Spaces aren't allowed in any URL.

You can get around this with newer versions of Netscape and IE by putting the space in the URL like:

http://207.198.116.233/hurricane/hurricane Foreasts.html

When you do that, your browser will go to:

http://207.198.116.233/hurricane/hurric ... easts.html

Which will work.

I read that "New" article and it's full of inaccuracies. Atlantic SSTs aren't normal to below, they're normal to above in the Caribbean & Gulf. He argues that Dr. Gray should lower the predicted Intense Hurricane days just as it looks like Dr. Gray is already too low on his projection with just one storm. Now we will have Isabel for quite a number of days.

The thoughts on a too-strong high pressure area in the North Atlantic was valid earlier, but the NAO going negative changed that.