Wobble, or start of West Turn?

bkhusky2 · #1 Postby **bkhusky2** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:41 pm

I've looked at a few loops of Isabel, and she may be starting to take her west turn, or she may be wobbling. Here's a water vapor loop, see what you think: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#2 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:44 pm

Looks like a start to the west to me.

bkhusky2 · #3 Postby **bkhusky2** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:45 pm

Let's hope it's only a wobble, this could be bad if it's the western turn.

Lindaloo · #4 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:45 pm

Looks like just a wobble to me.

weathergymnast · #5 Postby **weathergymnast** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:50 pm

Looks more like the convection stretching to the SW is causeing an optical illusion.

#6 Postby **Bolebuns** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:50 pm

What I notice in that latest loop is how the eye has contracted!

stormernie · #7 Postby **stormernie** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:51 pm

As I eluded earlier the turn would start this evening given appearance of Satellite. However, I don't expect a left turn but a gradual turn. I think she will reach 18.5 or 19.0 before heading due west. Also, down the road she will make a slight south of due west tack back to say 18.5N crossing 60W and then heading on a w-wnw track into the southern bahamas by Sunday Monday time frame.

Ernie

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:54 pm

We need more frames to make sure it is a wobble or the west turn has begun but now I see more west than north motion but again more frames are needed.

bkhusky2 · #9 Postby **bkhusky2** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:54 pm

Yes, they eye has contracted. I'd expect winds to be bumped up some by the 11PM AST Advisory.

bkhusky2 · #10 Postby **bkhusky2** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:56 pm

As you stated, we do need more frames. We should have a new frame in a matter of minutes, I'm betting this is just a wobble, or at least I hope it is.

wrkh99 · #11 Postby **wrkh99** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 7:03 pm

We need to send the Umpires from the Bama OK game out in it to take a better look

bkhusky2 · #12 Postby **bkhusky2** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 7:07 pm

I wouldn't argue with that at all, they were terrible.

On-Topic: Another image is available, unfortunatly my stupid internet is running too slow to run.

Josephine96 · #13 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 7:28 pm

Maybe we should start another game of name that advisory lol

chadtm80 · #14 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 7:30 pm

Go for it Josephine96 :-)

#15 Postby **ALhurricane** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 7:33 pm

IMHO, it looks like it is beginning its turn to the west. As MWatkins and others have already stated, the ridge is very apparent in WV imagery. As intense of a hurricane as it is, it is likely to make some wobbles here and there, but generally speaking I think it is making the turn.

It looks to be an unsettling week and a half ahead....

Stormsfury · #16 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 7:48 pm

With intense hurricanes, the wobble will become more pronounced ... since hurricanes spin like tops, they'll wobble like them, too.

SF

#17 Postby **abajan** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 7:51 pm

My guess is that the turn has in fact commenced. And (contrary to what some have stated) this is no fish. Right now, the Bahamas looks like a likely target. IMHO whether it hits there or not, somewhere will be hit by this monster

.

ColdFront77 · #18 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 8:33 pm

There hasn't been many here thinking that Isabel will move out to sea.

A very important issue remains... How long does the WSW motion last, if indeed it moves in that direction?

Wobble, or start of West Turn?

Wobble, or start of West Turn?

Eye

There's Really No Way To Know Until More Frames Are In

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