Man! Stacy is just terrific

[Scott_inVA]

If you haven't read Izzy Discussion 10, please do so.

I find Stacy's (a guy, BTW) thinking and prose to be among the best. Good analysis on the poss W/WSW track, risk threat, obvious C-4 TC development and realistic options.

Great, thorough, helpful read, as always! THUMBS UP.

[rob8303]

link? where is the article?

[Steve H.]

Just go under the Hurricane Isabel Discussion. Its available on the NHC site. Hey Scott, how come they haven't updated the tropical model page since 5 September??

[Scott_inVA]

Just go under the Hurricane Isabel Discussion. Its available on the NHC site. Hey Scott, how come they haven't updated the tropical model page since 5 September??

Steve, I update the page 4-6 times a day. You're stuck on September 5?
Hmmm...nuke your cache and it should reload.

Scott

[JetMaxx]

Well said Scott! I've had the pleasure of chatting with Stacy Stewart on a couple of occasions, and he's a consumate professional....best of the best!

[dixiebreeze]

Noticed that Berg does a very good job, too.

[ameriwx2003]

I agree Stacy is the best and really puts alot into his discussions:):)

[capecodder]

Stacy Stewart is certainly in that field of the few, who get to be "hurricane specialist".
I recently did an online search for Lou's weather Watch, and read an interview he had with Stewart. It's long, and thorough, and leaves you with a sense of admiration for this guy. Reading about him calling the shots on a major typhoon kept me on the edge of my chair.Now that he's at the NHC, and with that kind of training, I always look forward to reading his discussions.

[Steve H.]

Scott, what I meant to say was not the track but the (scroll down to the bottom of the page)" model output. Thanks!!

[ColdFront77]

link? where is the article?

National Hurricane Center's Discussion #10 from Stewart:

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003

ISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 100 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115
KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...102 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT/T5.5 3-HOUR
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE 100 KT INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100
KT AND 960 MB. OUTFLOW REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND THE EYE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED DOWN TO 25 NMI.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12. IS APPEARS THAT ISABEL MAY BE
MAKING THE MORE WESTWARD TURN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE TIGHTLY PACKED AND
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ISABEL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING MORE WESTWARD AFTER THAT. THIS IS QUITE
REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND EAST-WEST ORIENTATION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 32N LATITUDE. A DISCONCERTING PART
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUING TO
INSIST THAT ISABEL WILL MAKE A DIP SOUTH-OF-WEST AFTER 72 HOURS.
THEY BRING ISABEL DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
BY 120 HOURS. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAD A LEFT OF TRACK BIAS WITH
FABIAN LAST WEEK...SO I PREFER TO WAIT ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO TO
SEE IF THIS SAME BIAS DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT GIVEN THE DEEP MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
NORTHWEST OF AFRICA THAT HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD. THAT COULD
CREATE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NUDGE ISABEL
A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...SIMILAR TO THE GFS-NOGAPS SCENARIO.

ISABEL IS ABOUT 18-24 HOURS INTO A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE...SO
THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO.
AFTER REACHING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...INNER-CORE CONVECTION AND
EYEWALL DYNAMICS WILL DICTATE ANY INTENSITY CHANGES. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST COULD EASILY BE TOO LOW GIVEN THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 17.2N 42.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 17.9N 44.4W 115 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 18.6N 46.8W 120 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 19.2N 49.1W 120 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 19.4N 51.1W 120 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 55.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 19.5N 58.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 20.0N 62.5W 120 KT


NNNN

[wow]

OUTFLOW REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND THE EYE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED DOWN TO 25 NMI.

and the eye continues to decrease in size...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

still undergoing rapid intensification!

[Scott_inVA]

Scott, what I meant to say was not the track but the (scroll down to the bottom of the page)" model output. Thanks!!

Gotcha.
Ohio State textural products went down again on 9/5
I've been working on ftp'ing...might get complete tonight. Thanks for asking.

[PTrackerLA]

It's amazing how perfectly circular the eye has been. It's still intensifying because the eye is definately shrinking. Wouldn't be surprised to see 150-155 mph winds out of this one.

[ColdFront77]

OUTFLOW REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND THE EYE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED DOWN TO 25 NMI.

This isn't a quote from me.

[wow]

OUTFLOW REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND THE EYE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED DOWN TO 25 NMI.

This isn't a quote from me.

OUTFLOW REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND THE EYE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED DOWN TO 25 NMI.

sorry about that. fixed now!

[ColdFront77]

Thank you, wow. I wanted to be honest.

If I did post this quote (from the Tropical Prediction Center), that would have been an different situation. Thanks again.