30yr averages for Sep 8 and TD-14

[senorpepr]

Hmmm.... it's official. We are now more active than 1995... well... according to these stats.

Below is a breakdown of what storms were active on Sep 8 between 1974 and 2003. (Note: storm numbers in parenthesis had been finalled out by NHC prior to Sep 8) Also listed is the date Tropical Depression Fourteen formed between 1974 and 2003, if applicable. At the end the list is the 30 year average ('74-'02).

Active Storms on September 8, followed by the date TD 14 formed
03: 10, (11), 12, 13, 14; Sep 8
02: 6, 7, 8; Oct 14
01: 6, 7; Oct 27
00: (8); Sep 25
99: 8; Oct 17
98: 6; Nov 24
97: 6; n/a
96: 8; n/a
95: 13; Sep 11
94: 4; n/a
93: 6; n/a
92: (2); n/a
91: 3, 4, 5; n/a
90: 9; Oct 16
89: 6, 7; n/a
88: 6, 7, 8; n/a
87: 4, 5; n/a
86: 4; n/a
85: (5); n/a
84: 5; n/a
83: (2); n/a
82: (3); n/a
81: 5, 6, 7; n/a
80: 5, 6, 7, 8; n/a
79: 4, (5), 6, 7; n/a
78: 7; n/a
77: 2, 3; n/a
76: (7); n/a
75: (4); n/a
74: 6, (7), 8; n/a
====
Average Storm on Sep 8: 6.47 ('03: above average by 7.53 storms)
Average Date for TD 14*: Oct 10 ('03: ahead of schedule by 32 days)

* TD-14 occured 26.67% of the time in the past 30 years.

So... when will TD 15 form?

[JtSmarts]

Once again excellent job, you think we will reach 19 or 21 TDs

[senorpepr]

It possible that will hit 20 TDs... but if then again, if that pattern changes, we may end up with a slow end to September, or a slow end to the season for that matter. But all that aside, I'll keep with 20 TDs, 14-16 TSs, 7-9 HRs, and 3-4 Major HRs. We'll see what happens though.