Tropical update 11 pm

[WXBUFFJIM]

Isabel strengthens to a very dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale. At 11 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 18.5 north, longitude 44.5 west or about 1135 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Isabel is moving towards the west northwest at near 13 mph anf this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 135 mph with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a very dangerous category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Some additional strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours. There is not inhibiting further strengthening for the next day or so. Minimum central pressure is now 948 mb or 27.99 inches. Hurricane force winds extend outward 35 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward 140 miles.

Some good advice for the northern Leewards and Puerto Rico is to keep a very close eye on this hurricane. An upper low is moving through the Leeward Islands. At the same time though, a ridge of high pressure will build and strengthen north of the hurricane. So areas from the northern Leeward to Puerto Rico need to keep a vigilant eye on this thing if it turns a bit south of due west. San Juan, Puerto Rico stands at 18.2 north latitude and Isabel is at 18.5 north latitude. It would take a south of due west motion for this thing to make it there. The most likely track is north if the northern Leewards and Puerto Rico. However Isabel unlike Fabian will likely be too close for comfort as it continue due west throughout the forecast!!! Further implications may occur down the road in the southeastern United States. However it's way too early to determine that.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, TD#14 is disorganized with 30 mph winds. Looks rather sick south of the Cape Verde Islands. Meanwhile TD Henri is extratropical. However the gradient winds between high pressure and low pressure is strong enough to generate strong gales. Diamond Shoals light gusted to 40 mph last hour. Some brisk northeast pressure gradient winds for sure. Thus higher seas, and dangerous rip currents along the coast worth keeping an eye on for the next few days from NC north through southeast VA and eastern MD.

Good night everyone....

Jim