HENRI #21 - DISCUSSION

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 082020
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2003

THE GUILLOTINE HAS FALLEN ON HENRI. CONTINUOUS VERTICAL SHEAR OF
25-35 KT DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO HAS WEAKENED ANY WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION... THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CYCLONE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW COLD-AIR CUMULUS POURING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
HENRI...NOT AN ATTRIBUTE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LARGE-SCALE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLOUD PATTERN MORE LIKE AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM WITH A COMMA-LIKE APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A WARM
FRONTAL FEATURE NORTHEAST OF HENRI. THUS... HENRI HAS LOST
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER THIS
WEAK SYSTEM IS SUBTROPICAL... BUT THE APPEARANCE OF FRONTAL
FEATURES AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OVER 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT IT IS INDEED EXTRATROPICAL.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 050/6 WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE ELONGATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A SHORTWAVE INDUCES WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. THE NHC TRACK IS JUST A BIT FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
MODEL.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 33.0N 75.0W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 09/0600Z 33.5N 74.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 09/1800Z 34.0N 73.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 10/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1800Z 35.5N 70.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[WeatherEmperor]

...we are still talking about Henri? Is there something Im missing?

[ColdFront77]

This was the final advisory issued from the National Hurricane Center.

[SolakNC]

It's still a washed out factor here on the OBX...seas never calmed down from Fabian before the combo of the front and Henri kicked in. Henri might be gone, but it's remnants and the HI to the N are still trashing the waters.

[ColdFront77]

Hello SolakNC and welcome to Storm2K. I welcomed you in the Greetings Forum, too. Nice to see you posting here... I look forward to more of your posts.

That's true, sure tropical storm remnants do indeed have an affect along the coast with high pressures to the north.

[SolakNC]

Thanks for the welcome...nice to see a forum that operates in semi-real time Yeah----it's not a good day for the tourist here today---red flags flying on the beaches, rip tide warnings, waves at the end of the pier 7-9 feet, onshore winds chewing away at the beach.....if it wasn't near 80 degrees out, you'd think it was a winter nor'easter out there!