Is this the most serious hurricane threat U.S has faced?

[Lindaloo]

I am a survivor of Camille. With the way the MS Gulf Coast has grown since 1969, the results of a CAT 5 striking here will be beyond belief. Casinos being built right on the water, towering hotels too. Another 25 foot storm surge will make them part of the Gulf of Mexico.

[opera ghost]

Ak! My apologies- sometimes wording doens't come out the way you intend it to on the screen. Galveston WAS a sandbar- and a rather unsound place to build much of anything- however it WAS a boom town and a very very populated area. I only meant the analogy of building a house on sand- everything under it is only as stable as the ground it's built on.

Sorry for the confusion

((And I never swim in the gulf anyways... I don't like not being able to see my feet in the water!))

[GalvestonDuck]

((And I never swim in the gulf anyways... I don't like not being able to see my feet in the water!))

No prob!

BTW, check out my post in "Off-Topic" titled "Galveston gulf waters."

[JetMaxx]

What I meant was "worst natural disaster"....and don't tell me a large death toll in 2003 is avoidable.

I work with Skywarn, and have many friends in Emergency Management throughout Georgia and Florida. I know 35-40% of Florida Keys residents FAILED to evacuate during hurricanes Andrew and Georges.....that's 25-30,000 people -- and many would have drowned if Andrew had slammed into the Keys OR if Georges had bombed into a cat 4 over the Florida Straits.

Dr Robert Sheets told me many Floridians failed to evacuate from Miami Beach and points north into Broward County....areas that would have devastated by storm surge and wind had hurricane Andrew only tracked 25-30 miles farther north. Many of them are alive today only by sheer luck....they might not be so fortunate again.

Am I saying 6000 will die (actually most now believe the death toll across Texas from the 1900 hurricane was closer to 8000..some estimates of 12,000). NO!...but a large death toll is most definitely possible IF coastal residents are apathetic and refuse to evacuate beachfront homes and condos...especially from barrier islands.

Now, back to my original point...when I stated "worst natural disaster in U.S. history"....I'm speaking of economic impact, and the number of men and women affected. You think Andrew was horrible with 200,000+ left homeless? A large 150 mph hurricane slamming into Miami-Fort Lauderdale could leave 2 or 3 MILLION without a place to live.

Dr Jerry Jarrell...former NHC director admitted a few years ago that if Andrew had been only 20-25 miles farther north and impacted downtown Miami and Miami Beach (not to mention Naples)...the economic loss would have hit 65-70 billion dollars. A large cat-4 hurricane into downtown Miami...or Fort Lauderdale might exceed 100 billion, due to the larger radius of max winds and storm surge.

A 100 billion dollar hurricane that cost dozens, possibly hundreds of lives, and leaves 2-3 million people homeless...I think that qualifies as the worst natural disaster in anyone's worst nightmare.

[blizzard]

What I meant was "worst natural disaster"....and don't tell me a large death toll in 2003 is avoidable.

Ahhh, but if people are forewarned, IT IS avoidable, more so than in 1900 when most people didn't even know that the hurricane was approaching. With today's technology, loss of life in this situation is avoidable. Now, if people choose not to evacuate, that is their own problem. But still avoidable

[AussieMark]

Could large intense hurricanes striking Florida be returning like it did during the later part of the 1920's and early part of 1930'
s and also during the 1950's & 1960's.

<B>History always repeats itself</B>

What would the damage be like if Isabel followed 1979's David's assault on the U.S but stronger.

i.e Palm Beach at cat 4
Savannah at cat 3
midatlantic - new england at cat 2

[soonertwister]

opera ghost, what would you call Hurricane Mitch?

Mitch killed more people in Central America than the Great Galveston Hurricane took.

There exists a very real possibility that is never discussed, that a large and poweful hurricane could stall somewhere in the mid-Atlantic and dump dozens of inches of rain on the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains causing torrential runoffs and horrendous lowland flooding and land slides killing untold numbers of persons.

Those persons in Central America had no idea what kind of catastrophe was about to befall them until it was too late to do anything about it. The very same thing could occur in the U.S., but we would rather hide from the awful truth.

There are many different scenarios in hurricanes that can result in terrible death tolls and/or huge damage totals in terms of monetary loss. It is unlikely that the U.S. will see loss of life comparable to the Galveston cane in our lifetimes, but you can't ever say never.

For instance, if a cat-4 or -5 hurricane ran directly into New Orleans under the worst possible conditions, the loss of life could easily reach into the 10's of thousands, as could a rapid strike directly into the heart of Manhattan.

We just don't know. Devastating hurricanes are pretty rare events, and I doubt that we've seen all the tricks that Mother Nature has in her handbag.

[GalvestonDuck]

Ahhh, but if people are forewarned, IT IS avoidable, more so than in 1900 when most people didn't even know that the hurricane was approaching. With today's technology, loss of life in this situation is avoidable. Now, if people choose not to evacuate, that is their own problem. But still avoidable

They knew -- to an extent. The Cubans, who pioneered hurricane forecasting, were hit by the storm first. They tried to warn the US about how serious the storm was, but because the DoD (War Dept. back then) banned all Cuban-government telegraphs, they dismissed the warnings and ignored the danger -- thus, the people weren't properly warned until it was too late.

[Floridacane]

I have 2 neighbors that are Andrew survivors, they are not ready, (whoever is) for another "monster" to knock on their doorstep. She lived in Cutler Ridge when Andrew hit, and her daughter now 11, still won't sleep when there is a storm. I live in Palm Bay FL, just south of Melbourne and about 10 or so miles from the beach. I remember when Floyd was out off our coast and losing power for 4 days, and then Irene came up from behind and no power for 2 days and those weren't nothing to us here in Cen FL. The damage in my neighborhood was minimal, a few trees down, some shingles missing in action. But, I have never experienced more than a Cat1 cane before and am not looking forward to it either. Mother nature has shown her ugly head to me once with a quake in California and that was enough to me. So in about 4 or 5 days, if I'm not posting anymore, I'm outta here, Leaving on a Jet Plane....

[Valkhorn]

Mitch was just about worse than the Galveston hurricane of 1900. It killed a few thousand more people as I recall.

The worst tropical cyclone on record hit India in 1970 causing around 500,000 casualties.

[opera ghost]

Sheish louise.... We were talking aoubt US disasters last time I checked- I'm REALLY not up on my world wide "worst disaster" info.

I've had my entire post maimed at this point so I'll quite agreeably retract it. To tell you the truth- your right.

There have been larger natural disasters then Galveston 1900 in the world... and the potential stays for a greater natural disaster in the world.

Unfortunetly this entire discussion has been pointed towards the US and the definition of "worst" and "natural disaster" are open for debate- some people believe it's in lives lost- others believe it's in property damage. Some believe that "lives lost" is mitigated by prior warning- some don't.

That's what makes this forum such a wonderful place- we can all agree to disagree. I think that the "potential" lives lost in a New Orleans would be mitigated by the warning (IE you gotta be stupid to stay in a city that's going to be turned into a water bowl in the event of a hurricane. Stupid or too stubborn. And at that point it's tragic- but only because the people didn't listen)- but I also feel that lives lost is the true measure of a disaster- homes and property can be rebuilt. The only thing that can't be rebuilt given time and a lot of stubborness- is a life lost. Dead is dead- trust me I recently lost my mother-in-law and I'd gladly give up any amount of property to bring her back.

I'd call any hurricane that demolished a city but took no lives a far sight better than one that took a single life but didn't do a bit of damage.

But that's my *personal* opinion and I dont' require that anyone else hold it- or agree with it

-OG