The truth about Isabel ~ She IS a Category 5 right now

[Valkhorn]

The T numbers of 7.0 for Isabel clearly indicate 135kts for the maximum sustained windspeed. This translates to 161mph on the nose. Now if you take the average error for satellite estimates you get a range that is already above 156mph - the threshhold for a category 5 hurricane.

I'm sure if the T number was 7.5 that they wouldn't send a recon in there to prove it was a Category 5. They sometimes don't have to if they know for a fact it is that strong.

However, right now the wind speeds are at 160mph in my book, and they MUST categorize this as a Category 5 because it is the truth to what it is. Satellites don't lie - they are unbiased. If it gives Isabel an average of 7.0, that is what it is, and that makes it a certifiable Category 5.

This could be the ONLY TIME Isabel makes it to be this strong and could be the strongest point in Isabel's history. However since we won't get a plane into her we may never know how strong she truly was. This is exactly what happened with Hurricane Juliette in the Pacific.

I don't know if Isabel can maintain this strength for the 24 hours needed until a plane gets in there. We'll see, but if not we may have missed ever really finding out how strong she truly was.

The truth is out there...

[ameriwx2003]

I agree It does look like a CAT 5 now but I suspect they will wait to call it CAT 5 until recon gets into the storm . I wouldn't be surprised to see them say in the 11 am discussion that winds could be higher then what the offical TPC advisory shows but they want to see a continious trend to make sure this isnn't a pulse or something to that effect:):)..w e will know shortly:):)

[Valkhorn]

But my beef is this - if they wait until they send in recon they could miss it totally. She may not be at 160mph for that long, and she could easily step back down to 145 or 150.

If they never upgrade it now they may never upgrade it again. And my problem is that it already is a 5 and they should put the intensity down exactly how they read it from the satellites.

[snoopj]

Estimated at 150mph right now according to 11am EST advisory.

--snoopj

[wxman57]

135 kts x 1.152 = 155.52 mph, just shy of 156+ mph for Cat 5. The NHC calls a 135kt storm a Cat 4. Cat 5 would be greater than 135kts, or 140kts since only 5kt increments are used.

It does look like it may be a Cat 5 now, though. Wish we had a recon in there.

[soonertwister]

135 KT translates to 155 mph, still a Cat-5, but without recon they likely won't upgrade unless the T-numbers go to 7.5/7.5.

[Valkhorn]

Damnit I did my math wrong. Oh well

*doh*

[wxman57]

135 KT translates to 155 mph, still a Cat-5, but without recon they likely won't upgrade unless the T-numbers go to 7.5/7.5.

Actually, 155 mph is a Cat 4. 156 mph is a cat 5 (officially). Isabel would have to reach 140 kts to be classified a Cat 5. The NHC considers 135 kts (155.52 mph) a Cat 4.