Models say further north after each update for Isabel!

[chris_fit]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_model.html

Most models suggest a curve to the north. Is FL out of the woods? Just curious what you more expierienced guys think. I live in Melbourne and wanna know if I should begin getting prepared!

Cheers,
Chris

[wrkh99]

Florida is by no means out of the woods. Models will Flip and Flop many times over the next 7 days

[Stormcenter]

She MAY miss the U.S. and curve NE if the models have her turnung that early. The would GREAT news for the U.S. east coast. But the problem is we are still talking 1,000 miles away!!! So anything can still happen.

[Josephine96]

All this "out of the woods" stuff you guys say is useless.. I live inland a few miles but yes you should start getting prepared..

I don't buy this sudden "North turn" right now... It's been going due west, and occasionally WNW maybe..

Florida is still the 1 staring down Isabel's path and we should all watch it very closely and FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY EXTRA ATTENTION..

[mf_dolphin]

Florida is far from out of the woods! There is forecast to be a weaknees in the ridge but the ridge is also forecast to rebuild. Everyone on the east coast should get ready for the worst scenario and be greatful if it doesn't happen. Anyone that says you are safe at this point is just wrong IMO.

[wrkh99]

none of the models have her curving NE at this time

Watch the trend of the models .

[Anonymous]

Just because the models show it curving to the WNW doesn't mean its going to start curving NW, NNW, N, NNE, and so forth out to sea. For all I care it could bend back to the SW after 5 days and hit southern FL. Still too early to speculate on what's going to happen beyond the 5-day forecast period.

[cflweather]

Just built a new house, hope she goes somewhere else. Scary looking. Just better safe then sorry being prepared.

[wow]

this is certainly possible. there will be that weakness in the ridge coming up, however it most likely won't 'catch' her and takes her out. the ridge will rebuild atop of her and do the W-WNW thing again. all depends how far north she gets before she turns west again. Both Andrew and Hugo had similar situations.

[chris_fit]

Once again, models keep shifting further north (11am NHC advisory)... FL slowly but surely getting more and more lucky?

~Chris

[mf_dolphin]

chris, don't put too much stock in a jump here or there in a couple of model runs. Remember that they are forecasting what's going to happen. As we all know that doesn't mean it's a fact! The model runs later today may swing either way. Once the GIV mission goes into the area we'll get better input into the models and hopefully more accurate output as well.

[Stephanie]

The GFS 06Z had her making a direct hit on NJ/NY at 240 hours! :o

Once again, we see the models (in this case GFS) flip flopping. A day or so earlier, the GFS had her hitting south Florida and heading into the Florida Straits. With the GFS inparticular, the model acts like a pendulum and eventually lands somewhere in the middle.

[~SirCane]

notice what that model map says at the top right corner........

"Models are subject to large errors. Do not use for planning purposes."

The US is NOT out of the woods at all. Everyone in the U.S. from Texas on up the East Coast needs to keep watch.