Is everybody missing this?

[Stormcenter]

Maybe somebody has already noted this on another post already so if that's the case then my apologies. But with every recent advisory Isabelle has slowed her speed. As of 11am EDT she now slowed down to 9mph!!!! That is a VERY slow rate of speed for such massive storm. My point to this is that NHC is basing their predictions on Isabelle being at a certain location and a specific time. We all know the atmospheric conditions are contantly changing so if for some crazy reason she to were to slow down even further or stall then ALL bets are off. I have a feeling we will be dealing with Isabelle for a very long time. Please look at the link below to get an idea as to how far away she is still from the U.S. mainland. By the time she reaches the U.S. my kids will be saying Trick or Treat (LOL!!!)

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

[Ziplock]

Yes! I have been wondering the same!

I thought that the High would push her along at a good 12-14 mph clip. What is causing this slowdown? Is the High not far enough south? Are steering currents weaker than expected? Is there a change in direction (slow before turning) coming soon? I would have thought that with the height and mass of such a monster, given the recent Westward shift, that speed would have held steady or even increased...Perhaps the Low ahead of Isabel is affecting her speed? Is she being pushed? Or pushed AND pulled ?

Given a solid answer to this question...then what are the implications for future track?

All thoughts appreciated.
Zip

[Scott_inVA]

Maybe somebody has already noted this on another post already so if that's the case then my apologies. But with every recent advisory Isabelle has slowed her speed. As of 11am EDT she now slowed down to 9mph!!!! That is a VERY slow rate of speed for such massive storm. My point to this is that NHC is basing their predictions on Isabelle being at a certain location and a specific time. We all know the atmospheric conditions are contantly changing so if for some crazy reason she to were to slow down even further or stall then ALL bets are off. I have a feeling we will be dealing with Isabelle for a very long time. Please look at the link below to get an idea as to how far away she is still from the U.S. mainland. By the time she reaches the U.S. my kids will be saying Trick or Treat (LOL!!!)

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

Decrease in forward speed has been well advertised (8MPH now) and is anticipated as the TC remains south of the ridge and isn't being pushed. TPCs 5 day coords have taken this into consideration, but are, IMO, a tad too fast still. Intense hurricane will crawl sometimes.

She likely will come to a near dead standstill and do the sit and spin ENE of the Bahamas next week. The medium range forecasts (for what they are worth) and the enseambles take into account her hitting the brakes early next week as the 2nd trof approaches. The first trof is not going to be an issue with her.

Scott

[Stormcenter]

Maybe I missed something on one of the NHC discussions Scott but I don't think I did. There has been no mention (by the NHC) of a slow down. Now I know some models have hinted a stall when it reached the area around the Bahamas. But the storm is still 1,000 miles away from there so that is not the case. I find the slowing of forward speed or possible a stall to be a very important determination as to where she will eventually end up sometime next month. (I'm just exaggerating a little there, I hope I am)

[Scott_inVA]

Maybe I missed something on one of the NHC discussions Scott but I don't think I did. There has been no mention (by the NHC) of a slow down. Now I know some models have hinted a stall when it reached the area around the Bahamas. But the storm is still 1,000 miles away from there so that is not the case. I find the slowing of forward speed or possible a stall to be a very important determination as to where she will eventually end up sometime next month. (I'm just exaggerating a little there, I hope I am)

Yes and no. Izzy has been generally 12-14MPH and TPC has used their generic "THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS" (the fudge factor I'm told on this is +/- 10%). However, plotting out TPC's coords, they average slower than 12-14MPH forward speed, indicating this is taken into account. Basically, their coordinates have done the factoring in work for you.

You're right it make a huge difference how much she slows down and if/when/where she stalls. That's why no one can say with precision where/if she comes inland. But there is good overall model agreement on her slowing down before making a WNW turn, picking up speed before the anticipated sit and sip next week. If she does not sit, the GFS is incorrect about a sharper trof grabbing her off shore. We'll see.

Scott

[bev1]

I too noticed the slowing trend and wonder what (if anything) this will do to the future track. The reply helped some but there are still many questions. I guess that is why I enjoy tracking so much. The uncertainty makes it interesting.

[bkhusky2]

There has been some mention of Henri weakening the ridge and possible turning her north, if she stalls, the ridge may have time to build back in, maybe? Or, if she stalls, could a trough pick her up?