This question is for anyone who had a good feel on the weather pattern that will steer Isabel in any given direction. What will take place in helping Isabel go this way or that way? What are the scenario's and why? Thanks.
Johnny
Landfall Scenario's? 'Hurricane Isabel'
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*scratches heaD* It's just not quite that simple.... almost anyone who predicts a landfal or direction past the next 3-4 days is taking a step on the wild side.
There's a trough, the remnants of Henri (Why won't that bad boy jsut DIE?), that ULL to the west (which as near as I can tell has weakened a lot in the last 24) a run of dry air to the north and east, and other little bits and pieces of weather that are serving to strengthen, making minute changes, and balance Issy.
What will ultimatly decide where Isabel goes is the balance of ALL of these- which systems are dominant- how far they push- how fast Issy is traveling- and the strange changes of nature.
At this point there's no reason to eliminate any place as a potential landfall from GOM Mexico to Canada. Some are less likely than others based on historic models and the other things swirling out there... but they're all about as possible as any other in the long term scheme of things.
We're still a week+ out from any potential landfall. Declarations are running rampant- yesterday there was a strong scream about the GOM and Florida. There's been hollering aobut the Islands. Today the people who say South Carolina-East Coast seem to be screaming the loudest. The models change every day- sometimes many times a day- especially the long term ones. The truth is that none of us truely know where she's going.
But a lot of people have educated guesses
There's a trough, the remnants of Henri (Why won't that bad boy jsut DIE?), that ULL to the west (which as near as I can tell has weakened a lot in the last 24) a run of dry air to the north and east, and other little bits and pieces of weather that are serving to strengthen, making minute changes, and balance Issy.
What will ultimatly decide where Isabel goes is the balance of ALL of these- which systems are dominant- how far they push- how fast Issy is traveling- and the strange changes of nature.
At this point there's no reason to eliminate any place as a potential landfall from GOM Mexico to Canada. Some are less likely than others based on historic models and the other things swirling out there... but they're all about as possible as any other in the long term scheme of things.
We're still a week+ out from any potential landfall. Declarations are running rampant- yesterday there was a strong scream about the GOM and Florida. There's been hollering aobut the Islands. Today the people who say South Carolina-East Coast seem to be screaming the loudest. The models change every day- sometimes many times a day- especially the long term ones. The truth is that none of us truely know where she's going.
But a lot of people have educated guesses
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