OK...Throw the GFS Stall East of the Bahamas OUT!

[Steve H.]

Sorry for the length of this post but It's implications are enormous...From FL to Hatteras:


...12Z UPDATE...

12Z/11 GFS SEEMS ON TRACK IN SUPPORTING THE CHANGES THRU DAY 5 WE
MADE IN OUR PRELIMINARY RELEASE THIS MORNING. IT IS A LITTLE
SLOWER BY DAY 5 IN MOVING AN UPPER TROF THRU THE OH VLY...BUT
OTHERWISE IS TRENDING TOWARDS OUR ECMWF/06Z GFS BLEND THERE
CREATED FOR OUR PRELIM RELEASE.

FOR DAYS 6-7...WE DO NOT ACCEPT THE BROADER CONFIGURATION OF THE
UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN STATES...NOR ITS TREND FAR TO THE RIGHT
WITH THE TRACK OF HURCN ISABEL IN THE ATLANTIC.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

...E OF THE ROCKIES..

WE STILL EXPECT SOME LOCAL +SHRA DAYS 3-4 OVER THE E COAST
STATES. THE REMNANTS OF TS HENRI WILL FUEL THE SHOWERS SUN DAY
3...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF +SHRA INTO DAY 4 AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHING EWD ENCOUNTERS THE RICH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OF HENRI.

OUR BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT TO THE 00Z/11 GFS MASS FIELDS AND THEIR
DERIVED MOS PRODUCTS WAS TO REFLECT A SLOWER EWD TRANSLATION OF
THE UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUN
DAY 3. THIS SLOWER TROF THEN MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS MON-
TUE...DAYS 4-5.

THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS THAT POPS/QPF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/SE
COASTS DAY 6 AND ESPECIALLY DAY 7 MAY BE HIGHER THAN IMPLIED BY
THE GFS...IF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURCN ISABEL BEGINS TO
OVERRUN A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE DO NOT ACCEPT THE TREND
OF THE NEW 12Z AVN TO TURN ISABEL WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE NW
EXTRAPOLATED NHC POSITION FOR DAYS 6-7. SHE STILL POSES AN
EVENTUAL THREAT TO THE SE COAST OF THE CONUS.

[JCT777]

Thanks, Steve. This is pretty much what I am thinking also. :o

[Stormcenter]

What did you say?!?!?!? Here I thought the models were confusing until I read that post (LOL!!!!)