EXCELLENT Gary Gray Discussion Tonight

[wxman57]

Take a look:

http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/discuss.html

One statement really got my attention:

"In other words, over the past couple of years, the GFS has tended to perform better in the very long range than in the moderately long range. "

I've definitely noticed this trend with the old MRF over the past 5-6 years when forecasting winter events along the Gulf coast. The MRF did very well at days 8-10 then went "culeless" until about 48 hours before the event. I wonder if that's what is happening with the GFS now?

[ameriwx2003]

Wxman57... I had heard of that from other people as well.. Interesting:):). I am sure tomorrows model runs will be just as discussed as todays:):)

[Scott_inVA]

Take a look:

http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/discuss.html

One statement really got my attention:

"In other words, over the past couple of years, the GFS has tended to perform better in the very long range than in the moderately long range. "

I've definitely noticed this trend with the old MRF over the past 5-6 years when forecasting winter events along the Gulf coast. The MRF did very well at days 8-10 then went "culeless" until about 48 hours before the event. I wonder if that's what is happening with the GFS now?

True on both...GG has a good discussion while leaning on the EC's flip to the north and east. clearly puts NC/VA/DE/MD in the Zone.

My observation has been even the post MRF-GFS was good out of the gate with winter storms and Clippers to 7-8 days out. In the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic/NE, the GFS did this SIX times this winter only to dump each storm until ~48 hours out. Then it was time to match it up with the EC and the Eta.

Fab and Izzy show a trend (as Gary noted). recall, GFS fast out of the shoot bring both way west (both TCs were progged at least once to be interior NC/VA), then a major flip too far east (think it is doing this now), then it catches onto the Ridge and scoots west. Just an observation and something to watch.

Scott