ISABEL 5 AM EDT update

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning. An extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane Isabel continues on a westward track with 160 mph maximum sustained winds.

At 5 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.7 north, longitude 57.0 west or about 455 miles east northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

Isabel is moving towards the west at near 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track, Isabel will remain north of the Lesser Antillies, north of the Virgin islands, and north of Puerto Rico. However huge swells are affecting these islands along with dangerous rip currents!!

Maximum sustained winds are an incredible 160 miles per hour with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a category 5 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Most category 5 hurricanes will last an average of 20 hours before leveling back just a bit. It's already been 12 hours since Isabel was a category 5 hurricane and it remains one at this hour. Fluctuations in intenity are common in major hurricanes and such will be the case for the next 24 hours. A recon hurricane hunter aircraft is expected to reach the center of Isabel later this afternoon as the hurricane will be reaching a longitude of 60 degrees west. It's currently at 57.0 degrees west longitude.

Minimum central pressure is 921 millibars or 27.20 inches. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward 185 miles from the center.

The track of west to west northwest between now and next Wednesday morning is forecasted. Beyond that, the cone of uncertainity arises. A few possible scenarios could occur with Isabel. #1 Isabel moves west northwest, then moves west towards Florida as the ridge remains dominate north of the hurricane. #2, and the most likely scenario is a track towards the Carolina coast as the ridge will be places near Bermuda and a trough approaches from the central United States. The flow around that ridge will be such that the hurricane will likely impact the Carolinas, Georgia and Virginia coasts potentially before turning out to sea. Isabel will most likely remain a major hurricane during this period. There is also a 3rd scenario, which shows the ridge off the east coast near Bermuda while at the same time a trough along the east coast picks up Isabel, and takes Isabel along the east coast as opposed to hitting the coast directly. We all hope as east coast residents to see that 3rd scenario because that maybe the best possibility for everyone. Otherwise watch out. Once again reviewing hurricane preparation would be a good thing to do at this stage of the game for anyone living along the southeast and mid atlantic coast. Early preparation is better than not being prepared at all. It's never too early to prepare whether this hits or not. The bottom line is it will take several more days until the forecast becomes clear on a potential US landfall. If this occurs, Thursday-Friday would be the day!! Stay tuned!!!

Jim

[JCT777]

Good analysis, Jim.