5 PM- Isabel observations and discussion

[WXBUFFJIM]

The air force reserve hurricane hunter plane did confirm that Isabel is a category 5 hurricane on the saffir simpson scale.

At 5 PM EDT, the center of dangerous category 5 hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.8 north, longitude 58.6 west or about 350 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

Isabel is moving towards the west at near 9 mph and this motions is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On satellite imaginary, Isabel has been wobbling alot. That is common in major destructive hurricanes such as Isabel.

Reports from the air force reserve and noaa hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds with isabel are near 160 mph with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a very dangerous category 5 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are likely for the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward 85 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. Some flight level winds reportedly did gust to over 200 mph with Isabel.

Minimum central pressure as reported by the hurricane hunters is 920 mb or 27.17 inches.

Large ocean swells will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto rico, particularly on the north facing beaches!!!!

A track towards the west and west northwest is expected through 5 days. That would result in a track just northeast of the Bahamas by Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Beyond that, the forecast becomes uncertain. However given the fact Isabel will be at least close to the east coast by the middle of next week, all east coast residents from Florida through the Carolinas, Virginia, and evn up into New England need to keep a close eye on this monster of a buzzsaw. If preparation is the thing for you, good for you. The earlier you prepare, the better whether we see a major hurricane or not. But certainly residents and vacationers along the east coast need to monitor this very carefully for the next 6-7 days.

More updates soon.
Jim