Does this mean it's a fish?

[rob8303]

NHC TRACK
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
72 HR... AND TO THAT TIME THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE OCCURS AFTER 72 HR. THE
UKMET CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 120 HR IN
RESPONSE TO THE WEAKNESS. THE GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN
MODELS ALL CALL FOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. SINCE ALL MODELS KEEP
SOME DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF ISABEL...SO SHARP OF A TURN CONTINUES TO LOOK A LITTLE
DUBIOUS. THUS...THE 3-5 DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
UKMET. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET IS CALLING FOR MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR THAN FORECAST EARLIER...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THUS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AFTER 72 HR. GIVEN THE DIVERGENCE OF THE MODELS AT 120
HR...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHICH PARTS...IF ANY...OF
EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES MAY GET AFFECTED BY ISABEL.

Not implying anything but now the UKMET which has been excellent is forecasting this to be a fish or am I misreading that but NHC 5 pm leans toward fish DOESN'T it?
I apologize in advance if I'm wrong

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I am feeling more and more like this will only skirt us.......

[Johnny]

No, this does not mean that Isabel will be a fish. Too many ifs, ands or buts still on the table.

Monday and into Tuesday things will look a bit more clearer.

[wxman57]

No, it would not mean Isabel would be a "fish" storm. Even a due north track at 120 hours wouldn't mean it would stay on that track. Remember that we're expecting high pressure to rebuild north of Isabel beyond 120hrs, possibly shoving it back to the WNW-NW and into the mid Atlantic coast to southern New England.

[floydchaser]

No, the UKMET is implying landfall in NC beyond 120 hours (Derek mentioned something about 144 hour landfall at SC/NC border...haven't had a look yet at this). It is certainly possible that Isabel ends up a fish...however, I don't currently see any feature that will hook the storm in a NE direction. I think that the feature to look out for that could make her a fish would be a stall, either down south, or if it moves northward and bumps into the redeveloping ridge that the GEM/EURO/NOGAPS/GFS are building.

[Josephine96]

Lets not forget Florida people.. Remember, I saw a graphic earlier that said 2 models to FLA 2 to N or SC and 1 out to sea..

Can someone say RECOUNT! lol

By the way.. I'm approaching 400 posts too lol

[WeatherEmperor]

Once again relax Jo. Max Mayfield said on Channel 10 ABC news here tonight that Isabel will not be a Florida storm.

[ColdFront77]

No, it would not mean Isabel would be a "fish" storm. Even a due north track at 120 hours wouldn't mean it would stay on that track. Remember that we're expecting high pressure to rebuild north of Isabel beyond 120hrs, possibly shoving it back to the WNW-NW and into the mid Atlantic coast to southern New England.

A ship reported a 1016 millibar pressure northwest of Hurricane Isabel, several hours ago. Wouldn't that indicate that the high has begun to build westward?

[opera ghost]

No, it would not mean Isabel would be a "fish" storm. Even a due north track at 120 hours wouldn't mean it would stay on that track. Remember that we're expecting high pressure to rebuild north of Isabel beyond 120hrs, possibly shoving it back to the WNW-NW and into the mid Atlantic coast to southern New England.

A ship reported a 1016 millibar pressure northwest of Hurricane Isabel, several hours ago. Wouldn't that indicate that the high has begun to build westward?

What would happen if it *did* build nothwestward instead of due northward? (Or what COULD happen? I know that no one can accuratly say THERE... it's going to do X in X hours!)