Brand Spankin' New Isabel Forecast

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MWatkins
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Brand Spankin' New Isabel Forecast

#1 Postby MWatkins » Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:09 pm

Really no big changes...just waiting for the NOAA jet tomorrow...

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/2003-TC13.htm

MW
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#2 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:18 pm

Good post Mike. Cant wait for the NOAA data tomorrow afternoon.
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#3 Postby TampaFl » Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:21 pm

Thanks for the update. Once the NOAA GIV jet gets in there and gets the information digested by the models, this should make her future track allot clearer.


Robert
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:22 pm

Emperor tommorow night the survelliance jet will fly and by then we will know more about the upper enviroment ahead for Isabel.
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#5 Postby calidoug » Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:49 pm

Is it possible that the weakening is due to the storm now crossing Fabian's cold-wake, rather than any outflow interaction with the TUTT?

And do you mean the TUTT to the *West* and the well-established trough to the south-*East*, rather than the other way 'round?

If so, shouldn't the TUTT to the west provide ventilation? Shouldn't that help strengthen the storm?

Or am I completely wrong, and there is a well-established trough to the SW?-- though I'm having trouble finding it...

thanks.
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#6 Postby MWatkins » Fri Sep 12, 2003 9:34 pm

calidoug wrote:Is it possible that the weakening is due to the storm now crossing Fabian's cold-wake, rather than any outflow interaction with the TUTT?

And do you mean the TUTT to the *West* and the well-established trough to the south-*East*, rather than the other way 'round?

If so, shouldn't the TUTT to the west provide ventilation? Shouldn't that help strengthen the storm?

Or am I completely wrong, and there is a well-established trough to the SW?-- though I'm having trouble finding it...

thanks.


Getting very very tired and I don't have the benefit of having someone to edit/read over forecasts before kicking out...so this will be the 2nd night in a row I'll have to correct.

Thanks...you're exactly right on the west east switcharoo

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

Notice the black line that is standing up/squishing the outflow a little on the WEST side...the cold wake could also be responsible but overall...it's just a natural progression...these things usually dont stay that strong as long as Isabel did.

MW
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