Isabel should/will be downgraded at 11PM
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Stormchaser16
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Isabel should/will be downgraded at 11PM
Latest IR shows the loss of the deepest ring of convetion that was previously surrounding the center. Also the storm is losing symmetry and the Dvorak number is down to 6 which is down from 7. 6 would mean a minimal to moderate category 4 storm. So at 11pm i would expect them to maybe say 150 with a pressure going up to at least 927.
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: Isabel should/will be downgraded at 11PM
Stormchaser16 wrote: minimal to moderate category 4 storm.
is that like being minimally to moderately pregnant?
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Stormchaser16
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AussieMark
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mf_dolphin
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JetMaxx
It may weaken slightly....especially as it crosses the wake of upwelled water left behind Fabian....but afterwords I still think there is enough fuel in the sst to keep this a very powerful hurricane....140-150 mph....
I'm only forecasting weakening to 130 mph in day 5-6 of my forecast because of SHIPS and GFDL's insistence significant shear will occur....which I'm not so sure of (especially if the turn to the NW is gradual and more rounded than NHC and most models indicate).
I well remember Allen in 1980...when shear in the Caribbean appeared to doom the hurricane -- but the huge anticyclone moving westward with the powerful hurricane utilized the shear (changing it from westerly to southerly) to assist the hurricane's outflow -- which contributed to Allen reaching record intensity in the Eastern Caribbean (911 mb/ 150 kts) and near record strength in the Yucatan Channel (899 mb/ 165 kts) and western Gulf of Mexico (909 mb/ 155 kts).
I'm only forecasting weakening to 130 mph in day 5-6 of my forecast because of SHIPS and GFDL's insistence significant shear will occur....which I'm not so sure of (especially if the turn to the NW is gradual and more rounded than NHC and most models indicate).
I well remember Allen in 1980...when shear in the Caribbean appeared to doom the hurricane -- but the huge anticyclone moving westward with the powerful hurricane utilized the shear (changing it from westerly to southerly) to assist the hurricane's outflow -- which contributed to Allen reaching record intensity in the Eastern Caribbean (911 mb/ 150 kts) and near record strength in the Yucatan Channel (899 mb/ 165 kts) and western Gulf of Mexico (909 mb/ 155 kts).
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