Good evening everyone. Isabel continues moving west and remains a category 5 hurricane. However trends are showing some slight weakening ans cat 5 status may not last much longer.
At 11 PM EDT, the center of dangerous hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 21.8 north, longitude 59.5 west or about 320 miles north northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
Isabel is moving toward the west at near 9 mph. A west to west northwest track is expeted for the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a dangerous category 5 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations are common in major hurricanes. However recent satellite images suggest that Isabel maybe weakening slightly and could go below cat 5 status in a few hours. The next recon flight is scheduled for 2 am edt Saturday morning and we'll get a confirmation from the hurricane hunters on this.
Minimum central pressure is now 923 mb or 27.26 inches. Hurricane force winds extend outward 85 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.
Very large ocean swells are likely to impact the north facing beaches of Puerto rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands over the next few days. Swells up to near 20 feet are possible. Coastal flooding is a definite possibility at times of high tides in these areas.
The track of Isabel for the next 3-5 days is prety certain as it continues west northwest. The real uncertainity comes after day 5 or after Wednesday when a ridge of high pressure is expected to remain north of the hurricane. At the same time, a trough will try to move east into the eastern United States. The combination of these features and the timing will all determine the exact track of this major hurricane. All residents and vacationers from Florida northward particularly from South Carolina northward through the Outer Banks, Virginia Beach, Ocean City, and northward into New England need to keep a close eye on the track and intensity of this thing over the next few days. Things do change obviously!! The key here is preparation. At least get ready to prepare for Isabel along the eastern seaboard just in case the threat becomes more immient and definite. The earlier we prepare, the better off we'll be. It's better to be prepared for a major hurricane than get caught off guard whether there is a major direct hit from a hurricane or not.
Finally putting this hurricane into perspective, it's definitely a long lived monster and joins the ranking as the top 3 longest cat 5 hurricanes of all time. Only 4 other category 5 hurricanes have achieved longer than 30 hours since the year 1947 when the recon started flying into these things. So obviously Isabel is making history here for one of the longest lived cat 5 storms in history here!!! Quite amazing huh?
Jim
11 PM EDT: ISABEL FORECAT, OBS, AND CAT 5 FACTS!!!
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AussieMark
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Jim I totaly agree with you on this.....
The eastcoast should continue to watch closely and be prepared in case of the uncertanity of an hurricane coming to town.....I have been saying this all along. I guess at least monday they should have some knowledge as to where this hurricanes headed. But then again it may not be until tues. or wed. but I would say no later than that.
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