Will This Be A Factor?

[chris_fit]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Take a look at animation around 70W ..... there was a ULL there, did it just dissappear? will this make room for Izzy to continue more westerly?

~Chris

[chris_fit]

no comments?

~Chris

[opera ghost]

*I* would ~tend~ to say that it leaves her open for more westward movement. However I'm not a pro met at all and that's just instinct repeating a physics phrase I heard in school through my mind....

An object moving in a certain motion will continue to move in that direction unless other factors stop or turn it.

I always thought that ULL would slow her or move her- but she seems to have mauled it.

But don't take anything I said as gospel!

[ColdFront77]

It looks to me that the ULL is weakening to the west of Isabel. Perhaps in response to the ridge building west and southwest.

[Rainband]

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
835 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003

.CURRENTLY...SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MORE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAN YESTERDAY, AND FORECAST RH
GRADIENT VERIFIED WITH HIGHER VALUES TO THE SOUTH. STILL MID AND
UPPER LEVELS DRY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START BUILDING
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS THE REMNANTS OF HENRI MOVE NORTH OUT OF OUR
AREA. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR OUR AREA AND THEN MOVING
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY BRINGING IN SOME
MORE MOISTURE, BUT STILL NOT GOING FOR TOO HIGH RAIN CHANCE YET.
STILL THINK 40 POP IS GOOD FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR PERSISTENCE SAKE.

.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. WINDS VEER INTO THE EAST AND SOUTH...
WITH SEA BREEZES...AS RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTH. WINDS BACK AS
RIDGE MOVES NORTH AND ISABEL MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

.TBW...NONE.

[chris_fit]

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
835 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003

.CURRENTLY...SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MORE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAN YESTERDAY, AND FORECAST RH
GRADIENT VERIFIED WITH HIGHER VALUES TO THE SOUTH. STILL MID AND
UPPER LEVELS DRY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START BUILDING
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS THE REMNANTS OF HENRI MOVE NORTH OUT OF OUR
AREA. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR OUR AREA AND THEN MOVING
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY BRINGING IN SOME
MORE MOISTURE, BUT STILL NOT GOING FOR TOO HIGH RAIN CHANCE YET.
STILL THINK 40 POP IS GOOD FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR PERSISTENCE SAKE.

.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. WINDS VEER INTO THE EAST AND SOUTH...
WITH SEA BREEZES...AS RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTH. WINDS BACK AS
RIDGE MOVES NORTH AND ISABEL MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

.TBW...NONE.

This is badnews for FL right?

~Chris

[dixiebreeze]

Chris, I would venture a guess that it is.

[Josephine96]

It sounds like it's bad news for us since the ridge is building in

[soonertwister]

Looks to me like Isabel is just crushing all that muck to the NE of the Bahamas.

Something tells me she is going to get quite a bit bigger over the next 5 days, although maybe not as strong.

[wxman57]

I think that Florida is looking less likely for a landfall. Almost all models are in agreement that the ridge to the north will only weaken slightly in 72-84 hours, allowing enough of a NW movement so that the main landfall threat is in the NC to NJ area.

[ColdFront77]

It looks like some data came in the last 1 to 1 1/2 hours that has indicated that there are signs that the trough off the east coast will move away in response to the ridge in the Atlantic... like has been expected to happen.

All along, the distance between the trough off the east coast and Hurricane Isabel have have for some reason been considered close enough for Isabel to feel the the trough/the weakness in the ridge and turn WNW, NW, NNW to even N with time.

[chris_fit]

well, not exactly what i was looking for....

[bev1]

Fla may have probs after all