Area of disturbed weather NE of Puerto Rico

[Hurricaneman]

I'm starting this thread due to models developing it but does this have a chance to transition into Aurthur or are the models wrong and this remains an ET low pressure

[NDG]

I think it may have a shot of at least sparking our interest on this system, if GFS is correct it shows an upper divergence in helping with a weak low pressure development, for the UL trough to die out eventually and for a weak UL ridge to form over it, so it may have a shot of a weak subtropical development, IMO.

[AJC3]

If there's an actual "area of disturbed weather" right now, as specified in the title, then a separate thread is warranted. If its only a "modelstorm" per the thread that's been pinned for a few years now, posts should go in the global models thread. Is there anything actually out there?

[Alyono]

Looks to be a highly sheared area of weakly disturbed weather

[wxman57]

Yes, a highly-sheared upper-level low. Canadian, in particular, likes to try to develop such things into TCs. Development chances not zero, but a lot closer to zero than 1%.

[stormkite]

Yes, a highly-sheared upper-level low. Canadian, in particular, likes to try to develop such things into TCs. Development chances not zero, but a lot closer to zero than 1%.

wow that's got to be the best ever "sitting on the fence" quote i have ever come across.

[floridasun78]

someone post gfs other day show area few people on facebook starting take notice of model even miami weather office talk about it but their say could be subtropical system could stay east of florida

[stormkite]

someone post gfs other day show area few people on facebook starting take notice of model even miami weather office talk about it but their say could be subtropical system could stay east of florida

NAVGEM / CMC models like it for something at 132 H
http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/





NAVGEM

[SeGaBob]

A part of a discussion from our NWS station... (NWS in Charleston, SC)

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF AN OPEN WAVE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR
THE BAHAMAS. THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WED INTO FRI REGARDING
THE COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BUT THE WEATHER CERTAINLY
LOOKS COOLER AND A BIT MORE UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD. ASSUMING
THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE BY EARLY FRIDAY THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK LOOKS COOLER AND DRIER.

[JonathanBelles]

This system remains non-tropical, but interesting nonetheless.

ULL seems strong and continues to be assisted by a local dip in the jet stream as seen on the GFS:



Low level trough is evident to the east with moderate shower activity taking place over the USVI. If you have a chance to look at visible imagery, there's a lot going on.

[JonathanBelles]

New blog post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2014/05/10/up ... wing-life/

[JonathanBelles]

This low is better stacked today. Ill defined LLC is over the Mona Passage, and the ULC is very near the eastern tip of the DR. Overall it looks better than I expected, but the upper level energy is still attached and thus divergence is still in effect on the northern side. This should abate tomorrow. Interesting that the GFS and CMC bring at least remnants of the opened up wave into the southern GOM with a late trough interaction. Doubt that happens, but interesting nonetheless.