Looking at the latest NHC's forecast map Isabel shows a pronounced WNW projected motion when it gets to 60W... Using the latest IR GOES sat pix, which is about an or so hour old, I have the center at 21.89N and 59.65W, so it can be assumed at its present rate of speed it should be at 60W in 2-3 hours.... then per the NHC the WNW track kicks in, and on the forecast map it's a delineated WNW too.... if you get up in the morning and it still moving W or just north of due west.... throw out the models baby.... she starts that WNW track after midnight then the NHC has a pretty good handle on this system...
I think what transpires during the next 6 hours will be one of the first critical moments in the projected track... something to watch for carefully and to see if it comes to fruition.... IMO
I don't think I'd bet against the NHC right now.... but they've been wrong before
Should start moving WNW in about 2-3 hours???
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Stormcenter
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bayouwxman
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Looking at the latest NHC's forecast map Isabel shows a pronounced WNW projected motion when it gets to 60W... Using the latest IR GOES sat pix, which is about an or so hour old, I have the center at 21.89N and 59.65W, so it can be assumed at its present rate of speed it should be at 60W in 2-3 hours.... then per the NHC the WNW track kicks in, and on the forecast map it's a delineated WNW too.... if you get up in the morning and it still moving W or just north of due west.... throw out the models baby.... she starts that WNW track after midnight then the NHC has a pretty good handle on this system...
I'm not one to pick on the NHC because I'm actually in the minority who believes they've done a pretty good job this year....but...that forecast track you reference is very much a reflection of the model guidance. I suspect the turn will occur...just not quite that quick.[/quote]
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janswizard
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Re: Should start moving WNW in about 2-3 hours???
Well Frank as you said , "Throw out the models baby". Latest loop still shows Isabel moving almost due west Latitude 22N :o :o :o . Time will tell.Frank P wrote:Looking at the latest NHC's forecast map Isabel shows a pronounced WNW projected motion when it gets to 60W... Using the latest IR GOES sat pix, which is about an or so hour old, I have the center at 21.89N and 59.65W, so it can be assumed at its present rate of speed it should be at 60W in 2-3 hours.... then per the NHC the WNW track kicks in, and on the forecast map it's a delineated WNW too.... if you get up in the morning and it still moving W or just north of due west.... throw out the models baby.... she starts that WNW track after midnight then the NHC has a pretty good handle on this system...
I think what transpires during the next 6 hours will be one of the first critical moments in the projected track... something to watch for carefully and to see if it comes to fruition.... IMO
I don't think I'd bet against the NHC right now.... but they've been wrong before
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Robert
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Toni - 574
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jfaul wrote:Deenac813 wrote:Bill Kamal (my local met) stated that the models are only good for 6 hours so we should still keep an eye on Isabel.. From what I have seen I think he is right.. them seem to change all the time.
Deena
only good for 6 hours? in ever heard him say that..please explain
That is what he said last night.. I am assuming he was stating they are only good until the next advisory..
Deena
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Deenac813 wrote:jfaul wrote:Deenac813 wrote:Bill Kamal (my local met) stated that the models are only good for 6 hours so we should still keep an eye on Isabel.. From what I have seen I think he is right.. them seem to change all the time.
Deena
only good for 6 hours? in ever heard him say that..please explain
That is what he said last night.. I am assuming he was stating they are only good until the next advisory..
Deena
he was -removed-..hehe
hey did you see channel 10 promoing extended newsacasts and 1/2 hour special tonight on isabel..that is overhype big time for a storm that never gets close to sofla
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he was -removed-..hehe
hey did you see channel 10 promoing extended newsacasts and 1/2 hour special tonight on isabel..that is overhype big time for a storm that never gets close to sofla
You have got to be kidding me!! I am an insurance agent & no wonder we had over 100 calls yesterday asking about policies & seeing if they can get coverage.. UGH!! I wish they would wait until they are more sure before they scare everyone.. I like they way Bill Kamal has been handling this so far.. he is stating we are watching it but it is still far away.
Deena
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