Tropicals SIGNIFICANTLY Further South

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:26 am

And much slower.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03091306

Looks like the GFS is the only model that has a clue right now.

What the heck is going on?

MW

bahamaswx · #2 Postby **bahamaswx** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:33 am

I was wondering when the models would catch on and begin shifting south and west.

bayouwxman · #3 Postby **bayouwxman** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:35 am

What you're seeing is a forecast calling for a weak steering environment...not a big surprise. As Isabel pulls further away from the heart of the ridge and the first trough probably misses her, she's left in a relatively weak steering environment for a while. This is what the models were hinting at a couple of days ago.

#4 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:40 am

Yeah it took me a second to plot them but that is putting it on direct west for at least 1-2 days in almost all models...

South fla is looking like more and more of a target.

damn, seeing all this data, at 2:30am in the morning, and i have no one to really show it to! this is a major change, and people won't know till the morning.

This storm is gonna take us for a ride, like riding a roller coaster backwards, we can't see the twist and turns coming, and when they do, whoa they sure do!

Peace, sweet dreams to all those sleeping now!

ColdFront77 · #5 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:46 am

This goes to show that the ridge is indeed expected to build, probably because Isabel hasn't been able to get off "her" westward course for a number of hours.

Also, the trough off the east coast looks to be moving out of the picture.

#6 Postby **janswizard** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:48 am

well, I guess that means it's not over yet for us South/Central Floridians. Back to worrying again.

jan

bayouwxman · #7 Postby **bayouwxman** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:50 am

This storm is gonna take us for a ride, like riding a roller coaster backwards, we can't see the twist and turns coming, and when they do, whoa they sure do!

Yes...I would say that's a good way of putting it.

While I wouldn't worry too much about individual model runs, the evolution of the ridge/trough pattern in the coming days is going to be complex and difficult to nail down.

I see many people committing to certain scenarios, but this particular meteorologist is not sold on any particular scenario. Forecast confidence is below average with this storm.

I'd encourage everyone to have as much patience as possible and realize that this will slowly become clearer in the coming days.

#8 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 2:11 am

Take a look at this water vapor loop, it shows both the highs moving in the wake of the quickly retreating low that was Henri!
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

Run the loop with 30 frames on high quality; it is very evident why our new model numbers are predicting a more sotherly track with only a slight hint of any northerly turn in the next few days!

Everyone Fl > North should be getting preliminarily prepared this weekend with no respect to what their forcaster tells them!

-Eric

#9 Postby **drudd1** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:34 am

Here is another excellent water vapor loop: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

jfaul · #10 Postby **jfaul** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:38 am

drudd1 wrote:Here is another excellent water vapor loop: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

looks like the cyclonic spin over fl is pulling out quick which kamal saidwas going to steer it north..hmm

#11 Postby **Deenac813** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 7:40 am

Ok.. this is a stupid question but what I am looking for?? Can anyone dechiper (sp?) this for me?

Sorry for the lack of knowledge!

Deena

GalvestonDuck · #12 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:51 am

Deena, first of all, no question on this board is stupid. Ask away...it's the best way to learn.

Now, be sure to click on Ericiamia's link for the water vapor loop. Drudd posted a good water vapor image, but it's not a loop. You need to see the loop in motion.

After you click on the link, click the "animation" selection where it says "Show a..." and then select 30 for how many images you want to see. Then click "Animate the image below" and wait while it reloads.

Now, someone's hopefully going to come in behind me and post more info because I know I don't quite know how to explain it all yet (complete amateur here). So, gang, please correct me if I'm wrong on any point. Dry air is dark, moist air is white. Obviously, Isabel is very moist -- ya can't miss her. Low pressure spins counter-clockwise. Isabel is extremely low pressure (what is it now -- something like 920 mb?), so obviously she's spinning counter-clockwise. The high pressure ridge is to the north (1039 mb, last I heard). High pressure spins clockwise (although it's hard to see on this loop). The ridge is what we are saying is moving Isabel westward for now.

The cyclonic spin that jfaul mentioned over FL has pretty much moved out by the end of this loop, if I'm understanding what he sees correctly (see the counter-clockwise spin of dry air)?

Beyond that, I'd have a hard time explaining anything else. Especially, pointing out how those factors plus additional ones will either pull her north or northwest or west. I just don't know.

Please someone, fill in the gaps!

Hope this helps, Deena! :wink:

#13 Postby **Deenac813** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 8:55 am

Thanks so much GalvestonDuck.. that really helped me alot and I can see what you guys are talking about now.. you are the best!

Deena

Tropicals SIGNIFICANTLY Further South

Tropicals SIGNIFICANTLY Further South

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