Development in SW GOM? (Is Invest 90L)

[Dean4Storms]

Thanks Hammy, that is what I was after.

[Hammy]

I just wanted to toss something interesting out there that I found, that while I don't necessarily think that the GFS solution with two systems will occur, it's interesting to see something like that actually happened in 1974.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1974/1/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1974/2/track.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/cdmp/dvd0194-jpg/1974/atlantic/st-td_june21-27/satpic/s222331z.jpg
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/cdmp/dvd0194-jpg/1974/atlantic/st-td_june21-27/satpic/s222331z.jpg

[HURAKAN]

take everything with a grain of salt that occurred in the 70s and was categorized as a subtropical storm

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFS is rolling. Through 72 hours, system is noticeably weaker than in the relative timeframes from the 18z and 12z runs earlier today.

I'm surprised that the rotation from this morning persisted throughout the day, I thought it would have fizzled out in the afternoon.

EDIT: GFS out to 120hrs, and it's barely doing anything with the system.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like the GFS transfers the energy to the w. carribean

[AtlanticWind]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... e=&ps=area


Rain For south florida if the GfS is correct

[Hurricaneman]

if you look at the 0zGFS on the tropical tidbits page it seems to show a transfer of energy from the BOC to near the Western Caribbean sea with a tropical storm making landfall in Tampa at hr 216. While in the tropics you can't really rule anything out this solution seems to be a bit outlandish since it seems no other model has this kind of solution

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricane Alexis]

if you look at the 0zGFS on the tropical tidbits page it seems to show a transfer of energy from the BOC to near the Western Caribbean sea with a tropical storm making landfall in Tampa at hr 216. While in the tropics you can't really rule anything out this solution seems to be a bit outlandish since it seems no other model has this kind of solution

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

All the models are currenlty having their own solutions, one going from texas with another to florida. Once this thing begins to develop (if it does) the models should begin to agree on one general solution.

[ronjon]

NWS Tampa Bay AFD:

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
A WEAKENING FRONT COMBINES WITH GULF MOISTURE TO OPEN THE WEEKEND A
TAD ON THE WET SIDE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THAT THE
DISTURBANCE THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA...PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. CHECK THE LATEST ATLANTIC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK /TWOAT/ FOR CURRENT THOUGHTS FROM NHC.
OUTSIDE OF THE UNCERTAINTY FROM THIS SYSTEM...

[NDG]

ECMWF might be correct after all of no development in the BOC in the short term with the GFS now trending towards just a weak low in its latest 06z run.

[cycloneye]

No change.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A stationary trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong
upper-level winds will likely inhibit significant development of
this system. However, this disturbance has the potential to
produce locally heavy rains during the next few days over
portions of southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[stormlover2013]

Like I said the last couple of days lets just wait for something brewing but people jump the gun saying look at the spin the gfs is doing good, it's been on this and of course it keeps getting delayed, let's just see if something develops

[Dean4Storms]

The GFS is lost, after 3 days in row now showing a Tropical Cyclone just west of Florida @ 192 hours. It keeps backing up in time but pretty much the same solutions. Feedback or totally lost!

[wxman57]

Invest 90L issued. Just means that the NHC wants to take a look at the BoC region.

[NDG]

It sure is.

Click here

[USTropics]

Invest 90L in Active Storms now:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116365