Some amateur questions

[CFLHurricane]

1) When does wind shear usually lessen on the gulf? How about the MDR?

2) When does SAL start to let up?

3) Do you think central florida is vulnerable this year?

[wxman57]

Shear in the Gulf tends to let up right about the second week of June. Here's a plot of current shear vs. seasonal normal:



SAL typically diminishes by late June into July. Last year there was a stronger high pressure in the subtropics than normal, keeping the SAL relatively high into early August.

I'm not sure where central Florida is. I'd estimate that to be Orlando? I would say that for areas east of Panama City the chances of a hurricane impact are lower than normal this year. The only region that might even be CLOSE to a normal threat level would be the central Gulf Coast (Beaumont to Pensacola), and those areas are still at a little lower risk than normal. That said, it doesn't mean you should relax. Other years with a much lower than normal risk level would be 1957 (Audrey), 1965 (Betsy), 1992 (Andrew) and 1983 (Alicia). It only takes one...

[CFLHurricane]

Awesome. Thank you!