ISABEL observations, discussions, advice, and stats!!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning everyone. Hurricane Isabel remains a very powerful and dangerous category 4 hurricane this morning. It could strengthen back into a category 5 later this afternoon through tonight. All interests along the US east coast need to monitor this hurricane very carefully. The big threat zone is from South Carolina up through New England. It's looking alittle rosier for Florida. But until it's gets north of your latitude, still keep a close eye on Isabel in the sunshine state.

At 11 AM EDT, the center of dangerous hurricane Isabel was located near 22.2 north, 61.5 west or about 405 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Isabel is moving toward the west at near 10 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track, the Caribbean Islands will be spared except for very high wave action of 8-16 feet in swells on the northeast facing beaches of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the norther Leeward Islands. The Dominican Republic will also see swells and possibly even the Bahamas over the next several days as the hurricane approaches!!!

Maximum sustained winds are 150 mph with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a very dangerous category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Further strengthening is forecast over the next 24 hours as Isabel remains in a favorable upper level environment and moves into warmer water temperatures. Thus Isabel could become a category 5 hurricane later today or tonight for the second time in it's life. Only one hurricane, Allen was a category 5 hurricane 3 times in it's life and a total of 66 hours. Isabel has been a category 5 hurricane once in roughly 35 hours time. To say the least a very well formed and dangerous hurricane. An airforce hurricane hunter plane will investigate this dangerous hurricane this afternoon and will penerate the eye at around 2 PM EDT. Isabel looks better organized than it did this morning and it will be interesting to see what recon sees with this major hurricane. It will likely look much better defined and possibly stronger by 2 PM EDT.

Minimum central pressure is 935 mb or 27.61 inches. A hurricane hunter plane will measure the new presure reading later this afternoon on the afternoon flight!!

This needs to be watched carefully from Florida northward, especially from South Carolina northward through the Outer Banks, Virginia Beach, the Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay areas and even up to southern New England. Reviewing Hurricane preparation plans and putting them to action is certainly not a bad idea at this point in these areas. The earlier we prepare, the better. Whether there is a major hurricane or not, we can say we're prepared for whatever comes our way. That's certainly the message I want to give to you all living along the east coast this morning. Keep an eye on this Thursday through saturday of next week.

Jim