Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[cycloneye]

Hi Gusty. Here are two images visible and infared of the wave around 31W.Convection is below 10N because of the Sal (Saharan air Layer) that is to the north.

[Frank2]

The GFS shows a tropical system in the western Caribbean on Day 10, but that changes from run to run, so we'll see and perhaps it might be picking up on the wave you mentioned...

[TJRE]

I just had to take notice of this area...
Even if it is slightly off topic within this thread

man... thats some deep convection
Lets see if it has legs when it hits the water



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http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/latestImages.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg

[Gustywind]

Hi Gusty. Here are two images visible and infared of the wave around 31W.Convection is below 10N because of the Sal (Saharan air Layer) that is to the north.

http://oi61.tinypic.com/351v52r.jpg

http://oi57.tinypic.com/wbfiis.jpg

Good joob as usual my friend, thanks

[Gustywind]

805 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2014

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N31W 9N32W 1N32W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN
30W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO
8N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W.

[cycloneye]

8:05 AM EDT.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N38W TO 11N35W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THIS LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING LARGE CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AXIS. DRY AIR IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE THAT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

[Frank2]

This must be the same wave that the GFS is now showing as a closed low in the NW Caribbean from Days 8 - 10...

[wxman57]

This must be the same wave that the GFS is now showing as a closed low in the NW Caribbean from Days 8 - 10...

That's definitely not it. I traced the vorticity back to near Panama on Friday night, less than 4 days from now. That wave would still be way off to the east.

[cycloneye]

Wave is expected to move thru Puerto Rico on Saturday night thru Sunday but most of moisture will pass to our south.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT BRINGING
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT LATEST TIMING OF THE WAVE AND RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT DOES NOT FAVOR ANY SIG PRECIP. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
APPEARS MORE LIKE SUN. AFTER WAVE PASSAGE SAT NIGHT-SUN...SAHARAN
AIR WILL FOLLOW.

[TJRE]

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just a hunch ....
this beautiful mess may keep us checking in-- thru the week




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LINKS
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitE&time

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif


one more piece of eye candy




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http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/overview2/color_lrg/latestfull.jpg

[Steve820]

Well, the wave does look good enough. It might even have Arthur potential if it enters favorable enough conditions, probably in the western Caribbean. But right now, it looks like the SAL will keep it from developing significantly, but it still has some potential.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N51W TO 2N51W MOVING W 15-20 KT. DRY AIR
FROM A SAHARAN AIR DUST OUTBREAK IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH SUPPORTS THE LACK OF CONVECTION.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N55W TO 2N56W MOVING W 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN DUST LAYER
OUTBREAK...THUS LACK OF CONVECTION.