Discussion of 11 AM=All have to read this one from Stewart

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... s_nt3.html

Track is shifted to the left and there is no clear clue on what Isabel will do in the long range. :o

[weathergymnast]

I just read it. Hmm very intersting indeed. Does not even mention an out to sea possibility.

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... /MIATCPAT3

Here is the public advisory.

He says that it will go west for 36 hours Hummmm.Maybe Florida is not out of the woods after all.

[wrkh99]

and each model run has been a little farther
west and slower. The exception is the 06z GFDL run which made a
major shift westward by more 200 nmi in the later forecast periods

[jfaul]

and each model run has been a little farther
west and slower. The exception is the 06z GFDL run which made a
major shift westward by more 200 nmi in the later forecast periods

wrkh is right on the money..good work. sorry about your tide last week but better times are ahead..good coach and good team.

[Toni - 574]

This is setting up to be a very interesting week guys!!

Toni

[Dmetal81]

Thats a MAJOR change in thinking from 5am, interesting at least, means no one should be breathing a sigh of relief yet. Seems that the models are somewhat being disregarded now and unreliable in comparison on how to predict the hurricanes behavior based upon the high pressure. Shes gonna be moving west for a while then...

[wxman57]

I really don't see any major changes except that the GFDL shifted west to match about all the other models. There is tremendous agreement in the models in the mid to long range on the track of Isabel - right toward about Cape Hatteras to NJ. No big surprises in the NHC discussion - their track hasn't changed.

[Dmetal81]

I know you are a professional meteorologist, so I assume you know much more than I do If this westward shift in models becomes a trend by this evening tho, the story could change. Ill agree for now, but will hold my breath for the gulfstream data

[Air Force Met]

There has been a westward shift in the models. WHat people need to understand about this is that alot of these models that are shifting westward had the storm as a fish. I think people are thinking "westward shift? So Florida now?" No...that is not what is happening. The models that shifted westward like the GFDL were taking Izzy out to sea. Now these models are lining up with the other models that are taking her up the east coast towards NC and the DelMarVa.

In other words...the players are starting to get on the field...the models are starting to sing the same tune. Of course...my favorite the Euro was the first to start singing it. The GFS picked up on it next yesterday after some really bad flip flopping. Now the GFDL is getting its act together. Ingest some GIV data tonight and we should be able to give FLorida a thumbs up by Monday.

[Tommedic]

After reading most of these comments, I realize that few understand that this appears to be a self correction in the models. As has been said on this board and in other locations, these storms rarely make a "sharp" turn such as was shown in the models. Much like a very large ship that has to turn in stages, these storms tend to do the same thing. I think if we put that in the back of our mind we will realize that areas north of the outer banks may be affected, but after Isabel has made landfall at least once already. I do agree that a shift in the thinking to the left increases risks to Florida.. But I don't think any of us should have written off that risk. As has been the case in the past, we usually look at a cone and then figure the impact will be about midpoint in the opening of the cone. Even with the best forecasts we have had that problem for years.
What we should be doing now, anywhere on east coast is to encourage our neighbors to pay attention. Have them consider getting hurricane supplies now when they are available and can be replenished in stores rather than later when traffic into an area will be restricted.

Just my thoughts.

[Stephanie]

The westward the trend, the more likely a US landfall SOMEWHERE.

The models are all converging on the same scenerio. Again, as several have put it here, we need to wait until the end of the weekend to see for sure what will happen with Florida.

[cycloneye]

Well said Tommedic.

[simplykristi]

Hi All,
It is really too hard for anyone to predict where Hurricane Isabel will go. I would say for anyone living along the East Coast to be prepared just in case.

Kristi

[WeatherNLU]

I really don't see any major changes except that the GFDL shifted west to match about all the other models. There is tremendous agreement in the models in the mid to long range on the track of Isabel - right toward about Cape Hatteras to NJ. No big surprises in the NHC discussion - their track hasn't changed.

You know what happens when the models agree, right? The models have done what in my opinion amounts to a terrible job with this storm. They have been back and forth, and all over the place. They simply cannot be relied upon when you are dealing with a CAT4 or 5 hurricane and steering patterns that are suspect at best. I'm looking at the WV loop, forget the models. It's not looking good right now. TROF #2 better amplify and get down into the gulf if it is going to have any bearing on this powerful hurricane. I'm skeptical at best right now. The models are stopping a powerful CAT4 hurricane in it's tracks and sending it north. I'm going to have a hard time beleiving that regardless.