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Josephine96
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Air Force Met
- Military Met
- Posts: 4372
- Age: 56
- Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
- Location: Roan Mountain, TN
Decrease. The trough that is suppose to move her out is not even near her yet. There are 2 thoughs. The first will lift. The second will dig.
Also...it is also not all about a trough. It is about steering flow. Follow the link below and notice how the ridge shifts to a north-south ridge on the east side of the storm. This will steer the storm in that general direction. In the long range...look for the pattern and where the storm would be steered...not where the model puts the storm.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif
Also...it is also not all about a trough. It is about steering flow. Follow the link below and notice how the ridge shifts to a north-south ridge on the east side of the storm. This will steer the storm in that general direction. In the long range...look for the pattern and where the storm would be steered...not where the model puts the storm.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif
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JetMaxx
It means be vigilant if you live in Florida....
However, even if the ridge builds westward, there is a pretty good chance a strong shortwave trough approaching the east coast next week will "capture" and draw Isabel north....possibly rapidly.
The problem is no one and no model can precisely HOW quickly the turn will occur, or IF the forecast trough will be as deep as progged....
While I don't believe a landfall in South Florida is any more likely than 6 hours ago -- the discussion by Stewart reinforces my thoughts that the eventual turn NW and north by Isabel will a "rolling and gradual" turn -- increasing the threat to South Carolina, Georgia, and northeast Florida....
Here's some words of wisdom....UNTIL we have a clearer picture of just how sharp the trough will be, and how strong the high pressure ridge is north of Isabel...everyone from south Florida northward needs to be very vigilant. Hopefully the mission by the high altitude NOAA jet this evening will give a clearer indication by this time tomorrow on where Isabel is heading..
However, even if the ridge builds westward, there is a pretty good chance a strong shortwave trough approaching the east coast next week will "capture" and draw Isabel north....possibly rapidly.
The problem is no one and no model can precisely HOW quickly the turn will occur, or IF the forecast trough will be as deep as progged....
While I don't believe a landfall in South Florida is any more likely than 6 hours ago -- the discussion by Stewart reinforces my thoughts that the eventual turn NW and north by Isabel will a "rolling and gradual" turn -- increasing the threat to South Carolina, Georgia, and northeast Florida....
Here's some words of wisdom....UNTIL we have a clearer picture of just how sharp the trough will be, and how strong the high pressure ridge is north of Isabel...everyone from south Florida northward needs to be very vigilant. Hopefully the mission by the high altitude NOAA jet this evening will give a clearer indication by this time tomorrow on where Isabel is heading..
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