QUOTES FROM NHC MET THIS MORNING........

[dixiebreeze]

September 13, 2003 12:11 PM EDT

MIAMI - Hurricane Isabel weakened to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds Saturday as it swirled ominously closer to the Atlantic Coast.

The slow-moving, powerful storm was still several days from land, and forecasters were unsure if it would strike the United States. However, computer models predicted it would turn toward Georgia and the Carolinas over the next five days.

"It's not definite, but things are looking more ominous than yesterday for the East Coast," National Hurricane Center meteorologist Eric Blake said Saturday.

At 11 a.m. EDT, Isabel's maximum wind speed was 150 mph, down from 160 mph earlier in the week. A storm becomes a Category 5 hurricane, the top level of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, when its winds reach 156 mph.

Isabel was centered about 405 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, Saturday morning and was moving west at 10 mph. Forecasters expected it to continue that movement until Sunday afternoon.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions were forecast for the Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean. And the U.S. State Department issued a travel warning Friday advising tourists to avoid the Bahamas because of the storm.

The National Hurricane Center's five-day forecast for Hurricane Isabel put the storm roughly 420 miles east of the Georgia-South Carolina border early Thursday, if it makes a predicted turn to the northwest. But hurricanes can be unpredictable, and long-range forecasts have large possibilities for error.

Forecasters said Hurricane Isabel could still strike anywhere from north Florida to Virginia, and officials warned East Coast residents to be alert.

"If you've been lax with your hurricane preparations, now's a really good time to catch up," Blake said.

Meteorologists said they would know more about the potential direction of the storm late this weekend. The hurricane could pick up strength again as it passes over warmer ocean waters over the next few days, they said.

The last Atlantic hurricane to develop into a Category 5 storm was Mitch in 1998, which killed about 11,000 people in Central America.

The last two Category 5 hurricanes to strike the U.S. coast were Andrew in 1992 and Camille in 1969. Andrew, still the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history with a $30 billion damage toll, tore through south Florida and Louisiana, killing 43 people. Camille killed 143 on the Gulf Coast and 113 in Virginia flooding.

The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.