Models pointing toward FL...

[opera ghost]

It appears that Isabel is already beginning to turn. For a clue, take a look at the latest IR imagery. See that plume of outflow forming almost an arrow pointing toward the NNW. Here, I'll make a picture. Note how the mid and upper-level winds are blowing around the upper low AWAY from Florida? Note the plume of cirrus pointing up toward the Delmarva Peninsula? This is a sign of a storm that is about to change directions. The plume is giving you a big hint about its possible path. Remember the same thing with Lili last year? So, I would ask you, how is the storm going to propel itself upstream and hit Florida? Obviously, it cannot. But a good question might be is the CURRENT flow pattern off Florida going to hold for another 2-3 days?

Thank you- VERY much for that discussion- it helps explain in pictures what's so hard for some of us novices to see- your reasoning. While I still will be watching from florida to maine- I at least understand the reasoning of the pro mets THANKS!

[mf_dolphin]

wxman, what I see in the 12 hour loops is that the low off of Florida seems to be lifting a bit to the north. The lower extent of the low is definitely moving north. I guess the $64,000 will boil down to timing....

[wxman57]

wxman, what I see in the 12 hour loops is that the low off of Florida seems to be lifting a bit to the north. The lower extent of the low is definitely moving north. I guess the $64,000 will boil down to timing....

Right, that low will lift north and be replaced by a negatively-tilted (extending NW-SE) trof in a few days. The general mid to upper-level flow pattern indicated on the image above should continue, though.

[ameriwx2003]

Yes.. looking at thus water vapor loop you can see exactly what wxman57 is talking about.. You can picture the alley izzie is going to take :)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Deenac813]

Yes.. looking at thus water vapor loop you can see exactly what wxman57 is talking about.. You can picture the alley izzie is going to take :)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Stupid Question alert! Is the "alley" you are talking about that thin line of dark??

Deena

[ColdFront77]

Look at the deep upper-level trof lying just east of Florida. There is no steering mechanism now to take the storm west to Florida.

There is no steering mechanism now to take the storm west to Florida. That can change with the ridge to Hurricane Isabel's north-northeast will be a player along with the ULL to "her" west.