MAJOR difference in GFS!

[Stormchaser16]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_084l.gif

Does that appear further south/west to anyone or is it jsut me? It seemed like this time last run it was moving up towards central new jersey. It would appear to be heading towards Nc/Va with this run which would fall in consensus with the EC/GEM and other more southerly models.

[Stormchaser16]

As i posted that, after i refreshed and this is what i got lol....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_096l.gif

MAJOR difference for the GFS!

[Stormchaser16]

This is signifigant for a few reasons. The first is that it would be stronger at time of landfall because it is further south(doesnt ever exit the gulf stream) and 2 because it is as i have said much further south. It is now aligning with the EC and the GEM and most other models on a VA/NC hit as opposed to its earlier views of a more northerly track.

[Stormsfury]

The back and forth solutions are pretty much telling me that it's pretty much locking in on the window.

North Carolina/VA.

SF

[Stormchaser16]

I totally agree!

[njbeachwx]

Norfolk all the way

[jaysonx]

I wouldnt call it a lock yet.. wait until Tuesday night.

[debbiet]

Hi! Just found this website & board...very interesting discussion...but pretty scary too. I have absolutely NO knowledge of meterology just get pretty engrossed in following big storms. I'm also a paramedic so my job is likely to get interesting too :? I have a question...maybe no one can answer, but...

I live at the mouth of the York River which dumps directly into the Chesapeake Bay...less than an hour from Norfolk driving time, but I'm sure it's like nothing as the crow flies or hurricane moves. Based on a Category 3/4 storm making landfall near Va Beach/Norfolk what would that mean in terms of winds for us. I'm pretty high, but our family are all in the path of the storm surge flooding so we're all obviously concerned.

Thanks for any input.

[Stormchaser16]

Get prepared, as soon as you can. The system will likely be moving quickly inland and if it were to be a cat 3, moving quickly inland you should expect at least cat 1-2 winds, enough to easily knock out power. Have an emergency escape route planned if neccessary to evacuate. Tell your family in the path of the surge to have a quick route to escape, and tell them not to take the chance if it appears that Isabel is headed their way. While it is still days away, it is better to be safe then sorry. Purchase foods and supplies that could be used even if the hurricane were not to hit. And as we get closer, purchase more items to get you through if the situation so does arise. If this makes landfall near Norfolk, and moves westward inland, you could be in big trouble if you are not prepeared/ It is always better to be safe then sorry.

[Stormsfury]

Get prepared, as soon as you can. The system will likely be moving quickly inland and if it were to be a cat 3, moving quickly inland you should expect at least cat 1-2 winds, enough to easily knock out power. Have an emergency escape route planned if neccessary to evacuate. Tell your family in the path of the surge to have a quick route to escape, and tell them not to take the chance if it appears that Isabel is headed their way. While it is still days away, it is better to be safe then sorry. Purchase foods and supplies that could be used even if the hurricane were not to hit. And as we get closer, purchase more items to get you through if the situation so does arise. If this makes landfall near Norfolk, and moves westward inland, you could be in big trouble if you are not prepeared/ It is always better to be safe then sorry.

Bingo. Welcome to Storm2k, Debbiet, and heed Stormchaser16's advice. All the model guidance suggests Isabel will be heading in that general direction ...

SF

[njbeachwx]

Here in coastal NJ deb, bought batteries on Friday if that is any indication of the seriousness of the potential (key word) situation

[Stormchaser16]

Storm was it you that provided that MEOW model????

Debbiet, there is a topic at the top of the page that i think you should consider looking it, it shows the areas that would be affected by different category hurricanes moving inland at different speeds. Stay safe!

[ColdFront77]

Hi! Just found this website & board...very interesting discussion...but pretty scary too. I have absolutely NO knowledge of meterology just get pretty engrossed in following big storms. I'm also a paramedic so my job is likely to get interesting too :? I have a question...maybe no one can answer, but...

I live at the mouth of the York River which dumps directly into the Chesapeake Bay...less than an hour from Norfolk driving time, but I'm sure it's like nothing as the crow flies or hurricane moves. Based on a Category 3/4 storm making landfall near Va Beach/Norfolk what would that mean in terms of winds for us. I'm pretty high, but our family are all in the path of the storm surge flooding so we're all obviously concerned.

Thanks for any input.

Debbie, I'm glad you joined us here. Very busy as you can tell.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 960#240960

[debbiet]

Thanks for the concern and advice.

I had planned to go out this evening and get some water and batteries, stock up on canned goods, etc...but I've been told that there are none to be had around here. Folks really seem to be taking this seriously (at least enough folks to hoard all the water LOL)

Husband and I can't agree whether it would be necessary or advisable to board up windows given our location...at what wind strength do you usually get alot of glass breakage? Guess it really doesn't matter if a tree crashes through your window huh?