Some notes first:
- The error values I'm listing below are not official values by the NHC.
- Most of the model guidance and raw data I will be presenting can be found here: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/aid_public/
- I will provide a legend directly below these notes that will describe each model that is being included. I will also list the wiki page for more information as well as where the model runs can be located (if applicable).
- The ECMWF is not present because it is a proprietary model. While there is public data available, it is not sustainable to produce efficient results short of manually recording the results of each run (which I will do when I have more time in the future).
- I have included the experimental model UWN4 (see legend below for more details). I will also look to include the experimental model FIM in the future.
- The data provided includes from the time the system was designated an invest (except for the NHC track, which does not start initialization until a TD forms). This is the average of the entire storm's model runs which is then verified against the actual position of the storm.
- Don't put too much stock into the 0 hour positional error. Some models are given the start position of the system and others are not.
- Lastly, keep in mind that every storm provides a different situation to model with a multitude of variables. No one particular model is best. A collection of models should always be analyzed for pattern recognition.
Legend:
- GFS - Global Forecast System (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System) (http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php#)
- CMC - Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Environmental_Multiscale_Model) (http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html)
- UKMET - United Kingdom Meteorological Office (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Met_Office) (http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=hnord&run=12&mod=ukmet)
- GFDL - NWS / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geophysical_Fluid_Dynamics_Laboratory) (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
- HWRF - Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Weather_Research_and_Forecasting_model) (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
- NAM - North American Mesoscale (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Mesoscale_Model) (http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php#)
- NAVGEM - Navy Global Environmental Model (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navy_Global_Environmental_Model) (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
- NHC - National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Hurricane_Center) (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)
- TVCN - Consensus Track Guidance (includes at least 2 of the following interpolated models: GFS, UKMET, GFDL, HWRF, ECMWF) (see consensus section here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_forecast_model) (spaghetti plot: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/)
- SHIPS - Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/tropical_cyclones/ships/) (ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext)
- UWN4 - UW-NMS (University of Wisconsin - Nonhydrostatic Modeling System) 4km model (http://cup.aos.wisc.edu/will/HFIP/config.html) (http://cup.aos.wisc.edu/will/HFIP/)
